The Blinding of Samson in Iraq (UPDATED)

'The Blinding of Samson' by Rembrandt ca.1636 (large)

SCROLL DOWN FOR LATEST BREAKING NEWS: AL-ZARQAWI MAY BE DEAD (AGAIN)?

Dubya and the Republicans lost the war in Iraq due to their incompetence. Iraq is not the best place for our troops to be in the war on terror. They should be redeployed. Iraq is going to have a civil war. There is no point in our troops being caught in the crossfire.

Wow. This comment from one of my Democrat readers in my post today "The Die Hard $1ml War Against al-Qaeda' was more helpful than many other to highlight the fundamental dilemma of this troubled Dem-Rep debate. Misinformation and subtle, unglamorous fundamentals, incredibly hard to convey by way of sound-bites to the masses. I certainly struggle all the time.

The brilliant painting by Rembrandt named after the famous biblical story 'The Blinding of Samson' immediately came to mind.

I therefore want to give it a shot in explaining why I believe that the regime change in Iraq was absolutely necessary and why the Administration is basing the war on terror on the following sound premises:

(a) global terrorism is on the rise and needs to be combated;

(b) WMD are widely dispersed and access can not be reliably controlled;

(c) certain UN member states, who condone and tolerate the activities and operations of confirmed terrorist organizations, need to be monitored regionally and kept in check by credible threat of militarty might;

(d) all of them are Islamic nations;

(e) the stability of the global economy -- thus our wellbeing -- needs to be guarded. Stable Oil supply is a key prerequisite;

(f) the Middle East dominates global oil supplies (65%) and can not be left alone to deal with the aggressive push for power by the Islamofascist factions imbedded in every country in the Middle East;

(g) one of the fundamental mandates of any elected government is to ensure domestic STABILITY. 9/11 widened the scope from a national to a global perspective. Regime change in Iraq was in this context a necessity, not a choice.

(h) As so often erroneously charged, the motivation was not to shore up domestic OIL supplies (we don't need it, Asia does: if Middle East oil exports were completely cut-off in 2010 for some disastrous reason, the West would have to replace 3-4% of its total energy requirement. In contrast, Asia would need to replace upwards of 28% of its total energy requirement; 3-4% you can manage, but 28% you can not replace in a hurry...). And their economic shock would spread very quickly to affect us all.

So, terrorism needs to be fought, appeasement is not the answer. Iraq is in a political vacuum in a region beset by Islamofascists who are pushing forth for power. Taliban ante portas. The frequently voiced prediction that Iraq may be plunged into civil war -- a prediction, with which btw I do not agree -- is therefore all the more reason that we stay and ensure a gradual and peaceful transition. If it takes 10 years, so be it.

You'd want that to secure your own personal peace of mind, especially economically:

As outlined above, if Asia's Oil supplies were to be interrupted and its economy in chaos, that would matter to you personally. And I am not referring to mildly inconvenient Made-in-China supply shortages at your local Walmart (10% of all US imports from China is to Walmart), but I am talking about the global interdependencies of all economies, particularly China and Japan, as they are holding 50% of the US Treasury debt. Have that debt sold off in a hurry and you and I are in deep s....

And if you allow the Islamofascists to gain power in the Middle East, if you allow them to establish their Taliban 'heaven', you'd hand the masterminds of 9/11 the fattest checkbook imaginable. Jackpot. But we'd be in a lose-lose situation. Taliban & Co wisely 'invest' billions of Oil money to fight the Infidels -- big loss; Taliban & Co decide that the Infidel Dogs need to collaps under their own greed, hence no more Oil for Asia -- even bigger loss.

This isn't a partisan issue. This affects all of us. WMD deception neither here nor there. Democrats are engaged in political grandstanding to win elections. Once elected, they're not going to get out either because they love their children just as much as Republicans do, and, contrary to popular belief, they are of course not stupid.

But the soldier on the ground doesn't see that and sure as hell doesn't need the bashing. And al-Qaeda operatives don't see that and sure as hell feel emboldened by all this bickering, thus stepping up the murderous attacks, thus killing more of our boys and girls.

Political leaders who know and understand this, yet still promote the withdrawal of our troops in full cognizance of the reasons why that cannot be an option, instead of working together with the Administration to explain this war to the masses, are fuelling a poisonous debate to further their own political ambitions. By causing an increasingly irreconcilable rift amongst fellow Americans, they are doing this nation a humongous disservice in the ultimate fight against terrorism.

Donald Rumsfeld on CNN today:

BLITZER: That's why the U.S. went to war: the WMD and the Iraq- Al Qaida connection that you alleged.

RUMSFELD: The reason the United States went to war, the President has announced and said it repeatedly. There were 17 resolutions in the U.N. that were ignored by Saddam Hussein. Our planes were being shot at on a regular basis in the Operation Southern Watch and Operation Northern Watch. Saddam Hussein was giving $25,000 to the families of suicide bombers. Iraq was on the terrorist list. Iraq had used chemical weapons against its own people and its neighbors.

Check out the entire CNN's Wolf Blitzer interview with Donald Rumsfeld. The transcript.

LATEST BREAKING NEWS: AL-ZARQAWI DEAD (AGAIN)?

John Cross @ Drumwaster is live blogging it. Michelle Malkin is on the story. More from Kevin Aylward @ Wizbang, Jay @ Stop The ACLU has a round up, The Mudville Gazette here and here, Matt Margolis @ Blogs for Bush says if we have not succeeded this time we'll just have to keep trying, Jeff Goldstein remains sceptical, Johnah Goldberg @ The Corner is optimistic, and Chateau d'If is quietly hopeful quoting The Jerusalem Post via LGF who was the first in with the news:

"At least one Arab television media outlet reported that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the head of the al-Qaida in Iraq, was killed in Iraq on Sunday afternoon when eight terrorists blew themselves up in the in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul.

The unconfirmed report claimed that the explosions occurred after coalition forces surrounded the house in which al-Zarqawi was hiding."

The White House thinks it hardly likely, and not credible, however "a sample of his DNA is in American possession for a match-up".  Oh well, that felt good even if it was for a long Blogosphere moment.

UPDATE NOV.21: UNLIKELY TO BE AL-ZARQAWI:

"Other, highly dubious reports have also surfaced in the media today suggesting that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi may have been himself killed in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul during a U.S. military raid on a suspected Al-Qaida hideout.  Needless to say, such "tips" are often posted on fringe Arabic-language message forums on the Internet and are subsequently picked up by overeager news agencies -- but ultimately, most prove to be nothing more than unfounded rumor.  Certainly, Al-Qaida doesn't seem to have been at all fazed by the reported Mosul raid.  Not only has Al-Qaida issued nearly twenty new communiques in the last twenty four hours, but it also claimed credit for additional insurgent attacks on U.S. forces in Mosul.  Apparently, the raid that "might have killed" Zarqawi did not even succeed in decapitating Al-Qaida's military command structure in the Mosul area.  This Zarqawi report ultimately will be proven or disproven by the only sure way possible: forensic evidence collected on scene.  But, at least for the moment--given what we do know--it seems fair to classify Zarqawi's would-be passing as extremely unlikely."

Ah well.....

FURTHER UPDATE: "Family members of Jordanian-born al Qaeda in Iraq chief Abu Musab al-Zarqawi have renounced the terror leader, telling King Abdullah II on Sunday that they would "sever links with him until doomsday."

In half-page advertisements in Jordan's three main newspapers, 57 members of the al-Khalayleh family, including al-Zarqawi's brother and cousin, also reiterated their strong allegiance to the king

Al-Zarqawi had threatened to kill the king in an audiotape released Friday."

Time is on our side in Iraq, if the American people have the patience to see the job through to the end.

Demonstrations in Amman, by 200 000 Jordanians from John Hinderaker @ Powerline, who has more on the al-Qaeda claim that they did not target the Israelis in the Jordan bombing. The WaPo found someone to interview who agrees with the bombings in Amman. You have to give them 10/10 for that one. They might do better to spend the same amount of time fact checking their stories, instead of looking for the spin angle.

UPDATE NOV. 22nd:  A very interesting article from the great Mark Steyn: Listen to The Word on the Arab Street,, published in the U.K. Telegraph today:

Comments

[spiritofecstasy]

http://www.portaliraq.com/

Let me deliver more of my elusive, ambiguous and fun loving commentary after most have already left this thread.

At a repository in the UK is a gold-plated AK-47 taken in Iraq. Gold plated. The symbollic weapon may have belonged to S.H.

http://www.bobtuley.com/kalashnikov.htm

The gold-plated six shooters are still holstered by their original owners and friends.

Now it gets really tricky. Colby said in the seventies (paraphrase); 'We own everybody of importance in the m....'

"So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself -- nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance." -F.D.R.

[North by Northwest]

Indeed!

Still grappling with Asia's dependency on Middle East Oil as Alexandra points out above. You'd think they'd want to be a lot more hands-on in the struggle for freedom in the region. The last thing Asia needs, is for Islamofascism to take control. What is their stance at this stage? This must have been a major talking point for Bush during his China visit.

[jeff stiles]

I doubt we'll ever see that poll, North. And I wouldn't want to smell it if they did, knowing where they pulled it out of . . .

[North by Northwest]

Thanks Huan, now we are talking. Somebody show me the detailed poll allegedly returning that 80% want us out....

[Huan]

link for abc article:
http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/story?id=129193

[Huan]

1. the assertion was that the "bush lie" meme has been around for quite some time now. those that looked into it have made up their mind on its veracity before the november election. i do not believe that there are many if any who voted for bush are revisiting the question.
2. iraq economy expanded by 50%. yes, that was off a low base post invasion, but it is indeed growing. and individual income has as well since the invasion. they have shifted from a state economy to a free market economy.
3. Iraqi health care system is being rebuilt, from an an abc article in 2004:

The pre-1990 Iraqi health-care infrastructure was first-rate. A decade of neglect — and international sanctions — left the system in shambles.

By the time the war started, few, if any, essential medical services were available. The invasion taxed the system even further as casualties skyrocketed.

Today, the United Nations, the coalition authorities and various NGOs report across-the-board improvements in emergency medicine. The nation is not yet near the pre-1990 levels of care, but certainly beyond the levels seen prior to the war.

In addition, in 2002 Saddam but 16 millions into the system, the latest budget has 950 million
4. There are little stats in terms of national crime rate for Iraq, but here is the latest figures from Najaf

Crime rate dropped by 90% in the holy city of Najaf in June and August compared with the same months last year, Najaf’s governor, Asaad Abukalal said.

[jeff stiles]

Thank you, Alexandra, for keeping our doubts and fears in check. I'm sure everyone is grieved by the loss of American lives and the toll the financial expense is taking on our budget deficit. However, the cost of freedom is never free, and in the long run our nation will be blessed for doing what is right for our global allies.

[Alexandra]

Diana,

"I think the existing civil war can deepen."

Hence we have to stay not leave -- the lessons learnt from recent historical events (US abandonment after USSR defeat in Afghanistan etc.) seldomly provides such powerful precedent in support of this rationale!

"They feel that the war on Iraq has weakened our capacity to fight other terror."

Certainly true, but for all the reasons set out in my posts and previous comments, stabilize Iraq and you'd deliver the harshest and most severe blow to global terrorism. Leave a vacuum with Iran at the ready, you'd set the stage for infinitely worse, relegating any current hot-spot, which might otherwise perhaps be dealt with in a more comprehensive way, into utter insignificance.

"We are limited in how we act there [Iran] because of our vulnerabilities in Iraq."

Nothing keeps Iran more in check than a determined US lead coalition restoring law and order in Iraq and maintaining a strong military presence outside their doorsteps; and proving its resolve by withstanding the bickering back home. Their slogan: "Death to the weak and corrupt infidel dogs who can't even control their own backyard..."

Well fasten your seat belts I say....

[North by Northwest]

Huan,

I need help with your challenges to Diane's assertions:

ad 1. what is the significance of it being not new and that it was in place prior to Nov 04? It seems to me, that Diane has a point in relation to the republican faction now grown weary over a continuation of our presence in Iraq.

ad 2. do you mean the US economy? Diane is referring to the Iraqi economy, which I believe is certainly not growing at the moment.

ad3. again, the reference was to Iraq - I have no particular knowledge about their health care situation there but can only imagine it's rather dire.

ad 4. are you again referring to the US? Diane was referring to Iraq. My understanding is that the crime and corruption is rampant.

All good points from Diane, and all strong supporting arguments for why we need to stay and ensure the full restoration of law and order, which will take years and will cost many more American lives. But leaving Iraq and the region in the current vacuum will require American forces to eventually take on a much mightier opponent at the cost of many many more lives and being faced with a real prospect of actual defeat. Completing the mission now is infinitely more sensible, doable and morally sound than any other alternative.

[Alexandra]

Diana,
I would very much like to answer you immediately, but don't wish to do it quickly and off the cuff. Your thoughtful and succinct comment deserves more attention than that, and I am just in the process of preparing a couple of posts. I will email you as soon as I am done and have respoded or if indeed someone else has in the meantime.

[Huan]

Diane

I challenge your assertion that:
1. those who are claiming Bushed lie voted for him. the assetion is nothing new, and certainly was in place before November 2004.
2. that the economy is slowing. in fact, figures continue to demonstrate healthy growth, whether by gnp or by employment,.
3. health crisis? what health crisis is that? the avian flu that congress is not talking about, despite the administration request for funding, as they debate to cut and run?
4. crime, at least murder, is at the lowest level in decades
5. iran. we tried to let the european use their soft power, and look how successful that is.
6. should we reinstitute minority sunni rule in iraq to appease the surrounding sunni arab states?

[diana]

One thing to remember is that the majority of people now questioning it supported it and many voted for Bush. To try and frame their concerns in partisan rhetoric is wrong, not just a political mistake, but a lie.

Even the most radical proposal, that of "cut and run" is not just one of flaky lefists. General Odom was head of NSA under Reagon and is neither ignorant or unpatriotic. I for one want his arguments considered.

http://www.niemanwatchdog.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=ask_this.view&askthisid=129

I myself have doubts. For example I think the existing civil war can deepen. Dozens of neighborhoods and villages around Baghdad are "purifying" with Shiite fleeing Sunni areas and vice versa. This is often a setting for genocidal civil war. So I think we may need to have some force there.

But I want this issue faced and discussed, just as we need to deal with the slowing economy there, the health crisis, the crime and corruption.

http://amconmag.com/2005/2005_10_24/cover.html

In addition to General Odom's arguments we must also face that of many other critics including a large number with military and defence experience. They feel that the war on Iraq has weakened our capacity to fight other terror.

Obviously resources which could be used elsewhere are focused on Iraq. These include intelligence analysts, translators, special operations units and simple attention. Our strained land forces are almost forced to reduce their numbers in Afghansiant.

There are also consequences with our allies. They have been crucial in the capture of thousands of suspected terrorists and supporters. Alienation can reduce this cooperation. This is especially true among Arab nations were we are increasingly seen as supporting Shiite oppression of Sunni.

The later brings up another big issue. Iran is a member of the axis of evil and seems intent on increaing it's power and building nuclear weapons. We are limited in how we act there because of our vulnerabilities in Iraq.

Iranian backed militias control much of the south through which our communications lines run. These same militias are intertwined into the government and the security services. They and the militias of anti American (but not Iranian ally) Sadr control many areas outside of the south. If they were to start acting against us we could face serious losses and problems.

I do not support withdrawal from Iraq, but I do understand why many informed and patriotic people do. I think we have serious problems there and the best way to deal with them is to bring these issues forth and analyze them, not simply divide into simplistic partisan positions.

I am willing to accept some rightists critiques of some leftsist, but I see the right engaging in the same lack of for the real problems and solutions over there. The are caught in silly political games.

[antimedia]

Ghost just likes the sound of his own voice. Facts are irrelevant. Take, for example, this statement

No man has more credibility on issues military and certainly none represents a district more attuned to the values Mr. Bush professes to love than Jack Murtha.

John Murtha (it's not Jack, Ghost) is a Democrat, elected in a Democratic district. I can find you tons of Republicans Congress critters here in Texas that are a great deal more in tune with Bush than Mr. Murtha has ever been. Sam Johnson, for example. It's a silly statement, but Ghost will make it, assuming no one will either read or challenge his statements.

Then there's this

The war in Iraq has not only been a bust at "draining the swamp" of anti-Western fanatics, it has bred more terror in Iraq that is now pushing across its borders into countries such as Jordan, which the United States has considered an ally. The suicide bombers who attacked three hotels in Amman, including a wedding, killing more than 50 people and injuring many others, came from Iraq. Moreover, the eventual takeover of Iraq by the Shiite majority — which has already begun — only strengthens Iran, a Shiite stronghold and budding nuclear power with anti-Western inclinations.

I'll give you one thing, Ghost, you've definitely got your talking points down.

The suicide bombers who attacked Jordan were Al Qaeda members who came from Iraq. Your "point" is exactly the point Zarqawi wanted you to get - one which has been articulated by the left repeatedly. So Zarqawi gave you your proof - and in the process turned the entire country of Jordan against him and Al Qaeda and caused his tribe to call him anathema, which is tantamount to a death warrant. Zarqawi can no longer cross into Jordan without fearing for his life, and in fact, he may already be dead at the hands of a traitor in his inner circle. Furthermore, Jordan was a target of Al Qaeda before 9/11, as was Saudi Arabia and a number of other mideast countries.

This regurgitated opinion gets really, really old after a while. You'd think you lefties could come up with a new idea once in a while.

[North by Northwest]

Ghosts,

I can see that you believe what you write. But you fail to address counter arguments to your repeated assertions. Merely repeating them isn't going to swing anybody.

[Huan]

If Reps are Commies, does that mean Dems are fascists?

Not going to say much else because Ghost is only capable of perseverating on the mistakes of the past, without any constructive suggestion otherwise. Against such a blind "blame bush"stance there is no room for logic, premis, or analysis. And no, adovating cut and run does not constitute constructive criticism. Typical of the fascists ... I mean Dems. ;)

[Ghost Dansing]

Lot's of luck with that strategy based on "sound premises". It's going to take decades to undo the damage the Republicans have done.

This Republican administration has at once increased the ranks of jihadists by turning Iraq into a new training ground and recruitment magnet while at the same time exhausting America's will and resources to confront that expanded threat.

No man has more credibility on issues military and certainly none represents a district more attuned to the values Mr. Bush professes to love than Jack Murtha.

Some have said something about facts.

In February 2001, then-Secretary of State Colin Powell told reporters at a press conference in Cairo that sanctions had worked to contain Saddam Hussein.

"He has not developed any significant capability with respect to weapons of mass destruction. He is unable to project conventional power against his neighbors," Powell said.

That was one of the last times that a high-ranking member of this Republican administration gave a public assessment of Saddam's power that was undergirded by facts and rational analysis. Just a year later, the administration powered up its campaign of disinformation and distortion to justify invading Iraq and overturning Saddam. From that time to this, you've heard nothing but exaggerations, distortions and dissembling. Powell himself turned dutifully to the task of hyping the threat.

The war in Iraq has not only been a bust at "draining the swamp" of anti-Western fanatics, it has bred more terror in Iraq that is now pushing across its borders into countries such as Jordan, which the United States has considered an ally. The suicide bombers who attacked three hotels in Amman, including a wedding, killing more than 50 people and injuring many others, came from Iraq. Moreover, the eventual takeover of Iraq by the Shiite majority — which has already begun — only strengthens Iran, a Shiite stronghold and budding nuclear power with anti-Western inclinations.

If that weren't bad enough, the botched invasion — and the corrosive distrust of the political structure that it has generated among Americans — may eventually breed a brand-new Vietnam syndrome, this one the "Iraq syndrome." That will make it difficult for a future American president to respond militarily even to a legitimate threat.

Party Loyalty; It's not just for Commies anymore.

[jeff Stiles]

I helped smuggle Cantonese Bibles to underground churches in China with my dad back in 1986, and saw firsthand the persecution that the Chinese population (not just Christans, but every China resident) faces from their oppressive totalitarian government.

Come to think of it, that's yet another battle I'd much rather fight "there" than "here." We must seek energy independence in this country.