Europe's Appeasement Policy - Islam's Prodigal Son

'The Prodigal Son'  The French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin, Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, The German Chancellor Angela Merkel, The French President Jacques Chirac, The French State Minister of Economy and Finance Nicolas Sarkozy, and British Prime Minister Tony Blair in the background.

Treating the issue of Iran's alleged nuclear ambition as a hot potato, the European trio of Britain, Germany and France, has decided to pass it on to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and thence to the United Nations' Security Council.

"Our talks with Iran have reached a dead end," says Germany's new foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

The truth, however, is the trio's talks with Iran, which lasted three years, started at a dead-end. And the Europeans knew that those talks would get nowhere.

The talks began when Iran admitted that it had been lying to the IAEA and violating the terms of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) for 18 years but promised not to do so again.

Legally speaking, Iran should have been referred to the Security Council at that time. The Europeans rejected American demands to that effect and decided to forgive Iran for its past sins.

In exchange they asked Iran, in the words of the then French foreign minister, Dominique de Villepin, to give them "something with which to silence the Americans".

De Villepin had devised the scheme as a means of exposing what he called "the follies of American policy" as had been manifested in Iraq. He suggested that Iran be dealt with "the French way" which meant negotiations and compromise rather than knuckle-rapping or worse.

The Iranians welcomed the European offer because it did three things for them. First, it removed the threat of military action which, at the time, appeared to be serious. Secondly, the deal isolated the United States. Finally, it gave Iran time to speed up its nuclear programme, whatever its ultimate goals.

Believe it or not the Iranians were honest throughout the talks. They said they were prepared to give that "something" needed "to silence the Americans" in the form of a voluntary and temporary suspension of Iran's uranium enrichment activities. They did not promise a permanent ban and made it clear that they would not relinquish Iran's right, under the NPT, to enrich uranium for fuel.

Interestingly, the European trio, presenting the deal as "a triumph for soft-power diplomacy", never demanded that Iran submit to a permanent end to uranium enrichment. The trio was anxious to be deceived and was deceived by its own illusions rather than any chicanery on the part of Iran. All it was interested in was to score a point against Washington.

Even now the trio is not asking Iran to permanently forgo its right to enrich uranium. It cannot do so because the NPT recognises that right for all nations.

To make matters more complicated the trio is now forced to deal with a much tougher Iranian partner in the person of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad whose political discourse is based on a dream of Iran as a major power on the global stage.

Having called the Europeans "nothing but corrupt midgets", Ahmadinejad would be the last person to let them dictate to him. He is also convinced that the US, bedevilled by its internal divisions, has missed the opportunity to use the threat of military action against Iran.

As a result Ahmadinejad is actively seeking a diplomatic confrontation with the Europeans plus escalating tension with the US. He believes he can take on both Europe and the US and win. And, if he does, he hopes, he would emerge as the unrivalled master of the Islamic Republic and the de facto leader of the Muslim world.

When Villepin and his British counterpart Jack Straw plus their German colleague, Joshcka Fischer, initiated the talks with Tehran they must have known that Iran had taken the strategic decision to develop a nuclear "surge capacity" as one of the three pillars of its "National Defence Doctrine" enacted in the early 1990s.

The Europeans could not have been as naïve as believing that the Islamic Republic would abandon that pillar in exchange for diplomatic niceties and an invitation to join the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

Incidentally, the so-called "incentive" of inviting Iran into the WTO is no longer relevant because Ahmadinejad regards the WTO as "a club of thieves and plunderers" and preaches "self-sufficiency" rather than trade as the centrepiece of his economic doctrine.

The Europeans are not prepared to acknowledge that the problem is not about uranium enrichment but about the nature of the present Iranian regime. More than 20 countries, from Argentina to Japan, and passing by Germany and Ukraine, enrich uranium without anyone making a fuss.

The Iranian case is causing concern because few are prepared to trust the present leadership in Tehran not to embark upon some tragic mischief in the name of its Khomeinist ideology.

Appeasement.

European-style appeasement, partly motivated by a desire to pull faces at Washington, has encouraged the most radical faction in Tehran and helped bring Ahmadinejad to power. All the diplomatic gesticulations that are likely to follow will only compound that effect.

The Islamic republic has had three years in which to prepare for whatever sanctions the Security Council might impose. It has also signed oil and gas contracts worth more than $70 billion (Dh257 billion) with China and arms and industrial contracts with Russia exceeding $30 billion (Dh110 billion) to make sure that at least one if not both would veto any harsh resolution against Iran.

The Khomeinist regime is one of those regimes that will not stop until they hit something hard. Why should they when they can pursue their objectives cost-free? Soft-power may work only if it is backed by hard power. And Europe has, once again, made it clear that, it would oppose even the threat of hard power being used against Iran.

As things stand all those concerned in this carnival of absurdities have reason to be happy: The Europeans get rid of the hot potato, the Bush administration finds a diplomatic fig leaf to cover its lack of an Iran policy, the Russians sell their arms, the Chinese get their oil and gas, and the Islamists in Tehran accelerate whatever mischief they might be up to in the nuclear domain.

But the problem of what to do with an awkward Iran in a new Middle East will remain unresolved. And somewhere down the road the West might well find out it would have to use far more than the mere threat of hard power in order to restrain Tehran's messianic ambitions. And that would mean swallow a much costlier bill than would have been the case three years ago.

Now that Mohammad Al Baradei, the IAEA director has got his Nobel Prize, presumably because of the way he has handled the Iranian dossier, what about nominating Villepin, Straw and Fischer for next year? Heh.

Related:
Enemy Of The State
It's All About The Oil Stupid
The Rules Of Engagement,
Stop Or I'll Say Stop Again,
The Unexploded Bomb Of Global Politics,
Has Israel Persuaded Washington?,
Iran Prepares For Nuclear Jihad,
Europe Thy Name Is Cowardice,
If Israel Is The Tumor Then Iran Is The Metastasizing Cancer Part I,
If Israel Is The Tumor Then Iran Is The Metastasizing Cancer Part II,
Extraction Of The Stone Of Iranian Madness,

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Comments

[Jeff]

That is my question, too. Did the Europeans really think that diplomacy could constrain the Iranians? Well, perhaps it could, if the Europeans were willing to back up the talk with strong sanctions, but they're not even willing to wield that stick. So all they have accomplished is to prove to an aggressive regime that they are weak.

[MarcH]

From above: '(Ahmadinejad) called the Europeans "nothing but corrupt midgets".'

The man is right on target and has a way with words. Alexandra, could you give him some pointers on starting his own blog;-)?

[Liquid]

Always on Watch, great article!

So many haven't figured out that what the Islamist says and what the Islamist does are two different things...because for them Allah will always trump everything in their minds and Allah has given them an outlet to lie if necessary. I think many with the hope for the Islamic Caliphate are counting on their third generation to rise up and master what they haven't been able to achieve in the past.

The desire for a united Islamic state, although in conflict on who it should be within Islam itself, is strong and has been in several strategic plans for quite some time and their recruitment for this is all over.

I would like to share this ARTICLE and point out some of the seven staged plan which was shared in a book by Jordanian journalist Fouad Hussein. Many have dismissed it, but it will give a little insight into the mindset and goals, some unrealistic and challenged, but none the same a determination of those in al-Qaida.

The First Phase Known as "the awakening" -- this has already been carried out and was supposed to have lasted from 2000 to 2003, or more precisely from the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in New York and Washington to the fall of Baghdad in 2003. The aim of the attacks of 9/11 was to provoke the US into declaring war on the Islamic world and thereby "awakening" Muslims. "The first phase was judged by the strategists and masterminds behind al-Qaida as very successful," writes Hussein. "The battle field was opened up and the Americans and their allies became a closer and easier target." The terrorist network is also reported as being satisfied that its message can now be heard "everywhere."

The Second Phase "Opening Eyes" is, according to Hussein's definition, the period we are now in and should last until 2006. Hussein says the terrorists hope to make the western conspiracy aware of the "Islamic community." Hussein believes this is a phase in which al-Qaida wants an organization to develop into a movement. The network is banking on recruiting young men during this period. Iraq should become the center for all global operations, with an "army" set up there and bases established in other Arabic states.

The Third Phase This is described as "Arising and Standing Up" and should last from 2007 to 2010. "There will be a focus on Syria," prophesies Hussein, based on what his sources told him. The fighting cadres are supposedly already prepared and some are in Iraq. Attacks on Turkey and -- even more explosive -- in Israel are predicted. Al-Qaida's masterminds hope that attacks on Israel will help the terrorist group become a recognized organization. The author also believes that countries neighboring Iraq, such as Jordan, are also in danger.

The Fourth Phase Between 2010 and 2013, Hussein writes that al-Qaida will aim to bring about the collapse of the hated Arabic governments. The estimate is that "the creeping loss of the regimes' power will lead to a steady growth in strength within al-Qaida." At the same time attacks will be carried out against oil suppliers and the US economy will be targeted using cyber terrorism.

The Fifth Phase This will be the point at which an Islamic state, or caliphate, can be declared. The plan is that by this time, between 2013 and 2016, Western influence in the Islamic world will be so reduced and Israel weakened so much, that resistance will not be feared. Al-Qaida hopes that by then the Islamic state will be able to bring about a new world order.

The Sixth Phase Hussein believes that from 2016 onwards there will a period of "total confrontation." As soon as the caliphate has been declared the "Islamic army" it will instigate the "fight between the believers and the non-believers" which has so often been predicted by Osama bin Laden.

The Seventh Phase This final stage is described as "definitive victory." Hussein writes that in the terrorists' eyes, because the rest of the world will be so beaten down by the "one-and-a-half billion Muslims," the caliphate will undoubtedly succeed. This phase should be completed by 2020, although the war shouldn't last longer than two years.

Also another read of interest is Dr. Anis Shorrosh's Twenty-Year and Twenty-Step Plan for USA - Islam Targets America

[Always On Watch]

Does anyone really believe that an Islamist such as Ahmadinejad ever intended any negotiation? After all, the Koran specifically forbids alliances with infidels.

Three long years to cloak what's really been going on. And the loose centrifuges and the brain trust--from Iraq, no less--have probably found a home in Iran. So said Mahdi Obeidi last year; I heard him myself when I attended a lecture he gave in March of 2005. Dr. Obeidi would know! See his book The Bomb in My Garden.

According to a UPI article, Iran plans to test a nuke in March. The link to that article is posted in the comments section at my site. See "The Caliphate," which I posted on January 20, 2006. BTW, March 20 is the start to the Iranian New Year. Will we see some "pyrotechnics" around that time? I think it's very possible.

[Huan]

I believe the euro trio really thought that soft power could have produced the desireable outcome.
The problem with appeasment is a fundamental lack of understanding that boils down to:
"you cannot talk to a psycho like a normal human being."
To employ reason and ration to sway the minds and alter the plans of madmen reveals the foolish hubris of the appeaser. This is the hallmark of the European concept of soft power.

[Alexandra]

Jeff, in fact only if it were the Nobel Appea[c]ement Prize Category.

It was Monsieur de Villepin who forcefully led the fierce diplomatic opposition to U.S. and British plans to attack Saddam Hussein.

Villepin is especially sore because he had believed that his opposition to the toppling of Saddam Hussein in 2003 would give France a heroic image in the Muslim community. That illusion has now been shattered and the Chirac administration, already passing through a deepening political crisis, appears to be clueless about how to cope with what the Parisian daily France Soir has called a "ticking time bomb".

It is now clear that a good portion of France's Muslims not only refuse to assimilate into "the superior French culture" but firmly believe that Islam offers the highest forms of life. Ahem.

[Jeff H]

"...what about nominating Villepin, Straw and Fischer for next year?"

Only if, by the nominating, we acknowledge that the entire process of the Nobels make them a truly noxious joke.