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Thursday, March 09, 2006

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» Iranian Plutonium Development Started In 1990s from Captain's Quarters
All Things Beautiful points readers to a Ha'aretz report on the Iranian nuclear program that shows Iran has not only used the ostensible effort for domestic nuclear power as a front for its weapons program, but that the Iranians have... [Read More]

» Further Along than Thought? Iran and Nuclear Weapons from The Rolling Barrage
Haaretz is reporting what many have suspected for some time; Iran is further along in its development of components that together comprise a nuclear weapon. The notion of peaceful nuclear research seems as empty as Herr Hitler's pledge to avoid... [Read More]

» Further Along than Thought? Iran and Nuclear Weapons from The Rolling Barrage
Haaretz is reporting what many have suspected for some time; Iran is further along in its development of components that together comprise a nuclear weapon. The notion of peaceful nuclear research seems as empty as Herr Hitler's pledge to avoid... [Read More]

» Iran: Nuclear Nightmare from Wizbang
All Things Beautiful linked to a story in Ha'aretz that says the IAEA found a document that proves Iran is building a nuclear weapon: Some of the evidence of Iran's secret activities was mentioned in the IAEA's interim reports in... [Read More]

» Iran, Plutonium and Assessing the Threat from PrincipalAnalysis
With all of the discussion surrounding Irans largely clandestine nuclear program concerning the enrichment of uranium, it is prudent to consider plutonium, which the Iranians have already produced quantities of by their own admission. A developi... [Read More]

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» More Proof That Iran Is Building Nuclear Bombs from Gina Cobb
Alexandra at All Things Beautiful lays out the case that Iran is building nuclear bombs. Again, and with another layer of evidence added. For my own umpteen jillion posts on the serious and immediate threat posed by Iraq, click here. Next time you hear... [Read More]

» The Importance of Being Nerdly from Presto Agitato
The various debates, over the last few years, involving nuclear weapons in North Korea, Iraq, and Iran, have necessarily involved a discussion of Uranium, enriched Uranium, and Plutonium. Unfortunately, the subject being a highly-technical topic, confu... [Read More]

» Yes, Iran Will Use Oil as a Weapon. Next Question? from Gina Cobb
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» More Proof That Iran Is Building Nuclear Bombs from GINA COBB
Alexandra at All Things Beautiful lays out the case that Iran is building nuclear bombs. Again, and with another layer of evidence added. For my own umpteen jillion posts on the serious and immediate threat posed by Iran, click here. Next time you hear... [Read More]

Comments

GrenfellHunt

Alexandra: you've been doing great work on Iran. Many thanks!

DavidByron:
You can call Pat Robertson anything you want--except a fundamentalist. Need I explain why?

In general:
1. There is no moral doubt that Iran is pursuing nukes. The only question is how long will it take them to get them.
2. Nor is there any doubt that negotiation will fail. Iran wants nukes for both religious and strategic reasons, and they will not stop the quest merely because the EU asks them politely to stop.
3. This leaves some kind of military option as the only alternative to an Iranian nuclear nightmare.
4. But what options are there? The standard options of invasion or air strikes are a reasonable response to the threat; but both have drawbacks that make them a last resort.
5. That leaves domestic revolution as the strategy of choice, at least for now. And it's one that those of us in the blogosphere can actively support. With posts, publicity, and focus we can help undermine the regime. Active attention on a regular basis to Iran and the anti-regime groups within the nation has a chance at least of bearing fruit. If the MSM won't apply that kind of pressure, the blogosphere can.

RL

slowtrain,

And this is because their "culture" is largely driven by their islamic-jihadized("shiite"), revolutionary, and sharia worldview. Ideas(worldviews) have consequences.

Just examine the way of life in hezbollahland(southern-Lebanon)
and the gaza-strip; a culture of suicide and death.

"But he who sins against Me wrongs his own soul; all those who hate Me love death."
Proverbs 8:36

pierrerehov.com

slowtrain

"The big problem is that their islamic jihadized, revolutionary, and sharia worldview doesn't make any sense; at least to rational, reasonable, and logical men and women."

If the "rational, reasonable, and logical men and women" you spoke of are anywhere in Iran, why aren’t they doing something? The trouble is that the ordinary people are convinced that ownership of a nuclear or weapons will bring “honor” to Iran, just as the Pakistanis who filled their streets in jubilation and revelry when Pakistan showcased its newly acquired nuclear bomb. Honor, albeit a strange kind of it, is something that is highly valued in that culture, so much that people wrap themselves in explosive vest and explode themselves to get it. Some even kill their sisters who have been rapped to get it? The culture itself tends to be anti reason and anti logic.

RL

"Let us Pray that the Iranians have some sense !"
Gil Huhlein Jr.

Amen. (a noble prayer)


Reality Check,

tellthechildrenthetruth.com

(there are a couple of serious reasons why the islamonazi republic of Iran isn't yet listed on this list. Something to do with potential: fatwas and govt. sponsored assassinations in the name of their bad and manmade "god", "allah")

The big problem is that their islamic jihadized, revolutionary, and sharia worldview doesn't make any sense; at least to rational, reasonable, and logical men and women.


Gil Huhlein Jr

Nuclear Proliferation is the challenge of our day.
It is our duty to reduce that which is and prevent others from joining the nuclear club. The Bush administration needs to focus on this pressing concern. They seemed to have dropped the ball with North Korea! Let us Pray that the Iranian's have some sense!

Andrew of Arabia

"According to experts, the document is unequivocal proof that Iran's nuclear project is involved in weapons production."

Well that is just fantastic! I have to ask though, who are your "experts"? And just what do you mean by "unequivocal"? By Iran, you mean ... ? This whole posting seems to be very equivocal - show me the money, I mean the proof.

Mr. Ahmadinejad, or Mr. Magoo, as we like to call him seems to be crazy like a fox. It is apparent that Khamenei chose Magoo for his position as Prez with a distinct purpose in mind: nuclear-ize Iran as quick as possible and at any cost. Also, turn Iraq into Iran II; barring that, grab as much of it as you can. These goals are perfectly suited to Magoo's confrontational attitude. Everything appears to be playing out according to script. The question is, what's next?

Paul of York

Baradeitatus is like a metastasizing cancerous cell that simply spreads appeasement as it reaks havoc in the bodies of those affected. I have never liked or trusted that man, but that's just me.

And me. Even if he is considered Nobel by some.

MarcH

David Byron (above): "For obvious reasons US and Israeli sources simply have no credibility."

If David had written a letter to the editor in spring 1942 it would have gone something like this: "... for obvious reasons, British and Jewish sources (regarding alleged mistreatment of Jews behind German lines) simply have no credibility." David circa 1942 might also have added that such stories were an obvious plant by the duplicitous warmongers Rosenvelt (as the isolationists used to call him) and Churchill to draw the U.S. deeper into the failed war against Germany.

David might have changed his opinion after U.S. tanks rolled into Dachau in 1945.

Better late than never, right David?

slowtrain

Michael writes:

"About what all those Iranian officials said: We should also not forget that they are using rhetoric on their own people as well. When they say they want to persue nuclear weapons to the Iranian people, they could very well be bluffing."

I would like to think the Iranian leadership is bluffing, but history, particularly recent history leads me in a different direction of thought. The game of bluff is very dangerous and has grown even more so, in these days of increased distrust and anxiety among peoples and nations. We now know that Saddam Hussein was playing the game of bluff, but look where it led—thousands of people dead, a very unstable country, and more. I believe the Iranians are exploiting the situation in Iraq.

Riding on the heels of the outcome of a decade of sanctions on Iraq and the subsequent invasion of Iraq, led by the United States, the Iranian leadership perceive that America has lost moral credibility with the world and can no longer justify or convince the world to consider or support a military action against another nation, just because the United States says it possesses or is in the process of possessing WMD. This is largely because the sanctions on Iraq hurt the wrong people and made America look bad. Moreover, because no WMD was found in Iraq, yet, and because Iraq remains a very unstable place, perhaps, in some people’s view, in a worse state than before the invasion.

The Iranian leadership, also perceive that the United States is in a weakened position because of its engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan, the growing resentment of Arabs and Muslims towards the United States, plus the growing weariness of the American public concerning the war in Iraq and a growing national debt.

It is highly unlikely that they are playing the game of bluff—a game, which in a world that has grown ever distrustful and jittery, comes with a huge risk. No, the Iranian leadership is more calculating, more idealistic and more realistic than Saddam Hussein and his team. To them, the game of bluff involves a huge risk and offers little or no benefits. They have practically nothing to gain thereof. Not even full recognition from the United States would suffice, not when they believe they can acquire WMD and not only gain recognition from the United States, but indeed command her respect. They are serious and they reckon this is their best chance and they are going to take it, unless they are absolutely convinced that it would do them no good, which at this point has not happened. This in itself holds a certain danger, nonetheless.

RL

David Byron,

prophetofdoom.net

i'm assuming that you are a grown-up, so you decide.
the towel-headed and non towel-headed terrorists in the Middle East, and elsewhere, have long, deep, and historic ties to Naziism. there are even infamous photos of the evil nazi fuhrer accompanied by the "grand mufti" of Jerusalem (haj amin al-husseini. i'm sure that you can find these nazi photos online).

tellthechildrenthetruth.com !

Michael Galien

To start of:

I heard the same thing here. They do not say what European countries 'think' Iran is developing WMD's already. That is, of course, a problem. In order to verify information like this a country, best several countries, need to step up to the plate and publicly announce their intelligence about this matter.

I actually suspect something like that to happen next week. If I pick up the 'rumors' right, the European countries are probably Germany and the UK. We will have to wait for this of course: The difficulty being that so many of us believed the US when they clearly stated Iraq had them. That was (probably) not true.

Therefore I think we all need more time to digest this information and to receive new information of this kind. Acting too slowly is deadly, but so is acting to hastily.

The article you just used is a warning we need to take extremely serious. That is why, in the short term, I favor forced inspections.

About what all those Irani officials said: We should also not forget that they are using rhetoric on their own people as well. When they say they want to persue nuclear weapons to the Iranian people, they could very well be bluffing.

They are contradicting themselves continiously: the one day government officials say they do not persue WMD's, the other day another official say they dó persue them. That is how a dictatorship acts: What 'true' the one day, is untrue the other day (just look at China for instance).

I really concider it too early to call at this moment in time. I want to see what happens during the security council meeting next week first.

DavidByron

Please advise: is it "islamofascist" or "islamonazi"? Because I wouldn't want to call Pat Robertson a "christofascist" and then find I was using the wrong term.

NNW: I guess the NPT is the mechanism that is supposed to prevent smaller countries from going nuclear. The way to get it to work is to get America and to a lesser extent Russia to take it seriously. The other thing to do would be to support the UN charter's ban on war. These two together will make it so countries have no motivation to go nuclear.

Now Bush has done the exact opposite of both and therefore the exact opposite result is likely to happen. Iran would have to be nuts not to be considering their defences in view of all the warmongering going on. And they can see that no nuclear power takes their responsibiities under the NTP seriously.

I suppose Bush's plan was to frighten everyone in to obeying America but Iraq has just proven America is a paper tiger barely capable of occupying the weakest and most divided of failed states like Afghanistan, Haiti or Iraq. (And for that matter, yes, Kosovo).

slowtrain

In a world inhabited by people, incapable of peace, love and justice, war is inevitable. It does not matter how often that is, as long as the fundamental human aspiration is not love, peace and justice, there will always be conflicts and wars. Sir Winston Churchill once said of mankind, “If the human race wishes to have a prolonged and indefinite period of material prosperity, they have only got to behave in a peaceful and helpful way toward one another.”

In an atmosphere of perennial conflicts and wars, some nations, on account of their strength, be it numerical army or sophistication of weaponry, would be inclined to less restraint in the application of force and others on account of the belligerent dispositions of their philosophy, would be more inclined to violence and to provoke conflicts and wars. In the reality of the inequalities created by these two scenarios WMD, particularly atomic weaponry, becomes the great equalizer or the overriding advantage.

In the apparent nuclear impasse with Iran and the attendant imminent confrontation, two things need to be considered. One, what can history tell us? Two, “how bad does Iran want or need” the nuclear bomb? A careful consideration of these two questions clearly indicates that Iran is determined on acquiring nuclear weapons and Iran will acquire nuclear weapons. The question is what is the rest of the world going to do about it? In the case of what we can learn from history, Pakistan and India come to mind. In the case of the latter question, the leadership of Iran that sees itself and Iran as the ideological leader of the Islamic world, which it believes has been bullied and humiliated by the West, particularly the United States, is bent on acquiring nuclear weapons; primarily as both a deterrent and instrument of intimidation or blackmail.

On a more sinister level, is Iran’s desire to destroy Israel; a desire that was recently, clearly and unequivocally declared to the world by none other than the Iranian President himself. Of course, there is also the desire to punish the United States, expectedly not to the same magnitude as it hopes to inflict punishment on Israel, but nevertheless, to weaken the United States, by crippling its economy, thus making America less influential, particularly in the Middle East, and less of an obstacle to Iran and its agenda in the world.

How do you fight a mad man? There is an inherent problem of, “damned if you do, damned if you don’t”. The suicide bomber, a product of the same ideology as the Iranian leaders (the mullahs), ought to be a point of reference and a harbinger of what is to come. Win or lose, the madman has less to gain and less to lose, perhaps even nothing in either case. On the other hand, you have more to lose. So what ought to be done and what must we do, in a troubled world and a volatile Middle East, when Iran possesses WMD? That ought to be the question. Not the hand wringing and empty threats, which Iran has considered and accepted as necessary price for acquiring WMD, especially since it has Pakistan and India as models.

Right now Iran is two steps ahead of the United States and the Western world, in this high stakes “game of chess”. The United States and the Western world cannot afford to play catch-up in this dangerous “game”. Right now, the Western nations are torn between taking advantage of the situation to ensure an edge over others, in gaining access to the Iranian oil industry, perhaps even its potential market for nuclear technology. To use a phrase you have all heard before, this is a perilous premise, one that holds a certain danger to the West in particular and the world in general.

Alexandra

Steve,

Precisely.

But we have some extremely smart and civil liberals as commenters here, and it would be interesting to know what alternatives the Democrats would have decided on at the time, given the circumstances.

I only ever hear the arguments that revolve around the benefit of hindsight.

RL

and then there is another camp, albeit one of a minority scale, within the global intelligence community who believe that the islamonazi republic of Iran has already obtained a couple of atomic warheads through their organized-crime connections in Russia (and elsewhere), through the vast black-market that exists in the former Soviet Union. Everything is for sale in Russia, for the right price (everything).

and David Byron, kentimmerman.com/documents.htm

David, are you familiar with the IRI's E.M.P. threat to America ? (warfooting.com)

don't worry David, Frank Gaffney isn't "one of those evil Jews", or "neocons"; so people such as yourself can
trust him.


Steve Schippert

Alexandra,

"It does not make us look particularly good when in August last year a major U.S. intelligence review projected that Iran is about a decade away from manufacturing the key ingredient for a nuclear weapon, roughly doubling the previous estimate of five years, according to government sources with firsthand knowledge of the new analysis."

For what it's worth, it is appropriate to directly challenge the same souls who react to the exposure of the nature of the Iranian nuclear threat with loud cries proclaiming the 'US Intel-Declared 10-Year Window' position.

These are the same people who lambasted the very same Intel community for failing on 9/11 and for failing (so they still believe) on the Iraq WMD assessments. Suddenly, they are to be respected and revered? I ahve challenged that they cannot have it both ways, and get a response of silence.

Also, consider the North Korean path for plutonium. It is a possibility that would circumvent (in the short run) indigenous Iranian production.

Excellent work here. Thanks for that.

North by Northwest

I would like to ask our Liberal commenters to give us their opinion as to what ought to be done to prevent Iran going nuclear militarily.

Here we have a real chance to put forward our constructive ideas and can debate their merits in light of our various political beliefs.

Let me start off by saying that I do not favor a military strike per se, but would much rather explore the political possibilities of supporting the secular opositon within Iran. I have come across many testimonies where Iranians both living in Iran and abroad insist that the Mullahs's theocracy has absolutely no public support, that the young (average age in Iran is 26 years!! - so there are plenty of young) are repulsed by traditional Islamic doctrine and that they don't even feel Arabic.

Case in point, as Alexandra well knows: President Clinton, together with Secretary Albright (Albania's biggest supporter and friend in the West--a disaster tale in its own right) and especially the UN, missed many opportunities to support a large, organized and determined opposition in Yugoslavia throughout the 90ies in their effort to get rid of Milosevic. Plus, educated Serbs at the time (the vast majority) loved everything American--we are not talking genocidal thugs here, the likes you'll be able to find in any population at any time). Instead, Milosovic was left unchecked again and again and again, until the bombing in Spring of 1999; far too many years after the horse had bolted.

The net result, genocide took place, opposition endured years of setbacks and persecution, economy tanked, but most importantly a staunch ally of significant geo-strategic importance was turned into an embittered foe, from the highest ranks of enlightened opposition leaders all the way down to the street-level. (Why geo-strategic importance? Prior to Milosevic, Kosovo was an autonomous region within the Republic of Serbia, and as such an important regional bulwark against expansionist Islam from Albania and beyond, which has now been turned into a safe heaven for organized crime, a cest pool of drug and human trafficking and regional 'headquarters' for al Qaeda et al).

Is it too late to apply lessons learned in Yugoslavia?

Alexandra

David,

Why would they? They don't have to, until the blast do they? They can simply keep on saying as you are "Show me the money", and moving the goalposts as new information comes to light.

In any event The Telegraph picked the story up from me a good week after my post, and because it was not translated by them from Farsi, were fairly cautious. As for relying on the MSM, I would not hold my breath. They printed it , that's already a leap of faith no other MSM publication took. Now that the intelligence report clearly exists they will publish, but of course with their own spin according to the message they wish to send, and the goalpost will simply keep on moving.

Furthermore, no one can be certain of the stage Iran is at, other than that they are definitely building a nuclear weapon. But rest assured whatever that stage may have been, it has progressed much further and faster than we had anticipated, with the discrepancy being 13 years. Now that is a long time, when you have the kind of monetary resources Iran has. Have a look @ Ed Morrissey, and Power Line today.

Apropos your question on the other thread 'D for denial', cutting through the chase, is your point that you say the administration lied about WMDs or that you would prefer to have seen Saddam still in power. Clearly he was going nowhere of his own accord.

DavidByron

The UK newspaper article does not say Iran has a weapons program or even suggest at any evidence that it might. For obvious reasons US and Israeli sources simply have no credibility. "Fool me once..." as they say in Texas.

RL

"Millionaire Mullahs" (*) by Paul Klebnikov at, forbes.com

a must read at forbes.com

(*) Billionaires in unfortunately far too many cases.

ayatollah rafsanjani is one of the most financially wealthy men on earth. it's almost funny that one of the chief complaints of the islamonazi terrorists that perpetrated the very bloody, murderous, and terrorist islamonazi "revolution" on Iran, and on the Iranian people, against the pro-American, and friendly to Israel King of Iran, was that he lived too much of an opulent (read, rich man's) lifestyle. Now take a look at who has all of the money, and "absolute power" (total corruption) in the islamonazi republic of Iran; the barbaric, evil, and murderous ayatollahs and all of the other mullahs.

Total hypocrisy at it's very worst, in action. And they have the chutzpah to perpetrate their barbaric, cruel, and horrendous crimes/human-rights violations against the Iranian people, and the Iranian nation in the name of "allah" (their "god"), and for the cause of the "Palestinian people" and the "occupied territories". Give me a break !
These towel-headed islamonazi terrorist-monsters AREN'T even Arabs ! Hello !? Anybody or anything home underneath those towel-wrapped & lice-infested heads ? Persia is not Arabia,
and Persians are NOT Arabs.

The ayatollahs and the mullahs in the islamonazi republic of Iran are some of the most brutal, most cruel, and most evil violators of human-rights in the history of the world.

You can learn more facts concerning the "islamic activities" that they fund, inspire, and promote in the "occupied territories" as well as in hezbollahland at, pierrerehov.com ("Suicide Killers").

epaminondas

I thought only paranoid crypto zionists worried about these things?

I mean what can happen?

We should worry about the cost of Rx's right?
I mean Bush is breaking the law every day by spying on libraries to see if grandma is looking at playgirl, right? And listening to Howard Dean's secret cell phone calls...oh wait, he has no disconnect between his hindbrain and mouth anyway ..then he must be listening to Reid and Pelosi bragging privately about killing the Patriot Act last year ..oh wait they did that in public proudly, then we should worry about Katrina in the future global warming rising seas, right? Oh wait we came closer to Kyoto than the EU did without signing the agreement.

Why worry the moderates in Iran will restrain the twerp anyway, right? I mean Rafsanjani is a moderate (RAFSANJANI SAYS MUSLIMS SHOULD USE NUCLEAR WEAPON AGAINST ISRAEL

TEHRAN 14 Dec. (IPS) One of Iran's most influential ruling cleric called Friday on the Muslim states to use nuclear weapon against Israel, assuring them that while such an attack would annihilate Israel, it would cost them "damages only".), right?

What can happen?

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Previous Posts


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