Iran's Deadly Agenda

"The splitting of the Atom (La separation de l'atome)" or "Dematerialization near the Nose of Nero" by Salvador Dali 1947

 

It does not come as a great surprise to us that the IAEA report on Iran's nuclear program obtained via my talented friends over @ Vital Perspective

is quite damning and points out the 20 years of Iran's deception and its total unwillingness to answer for conduct. It discloses that Iran has been working on advanced P-2 centrifuges – as Ahmadinejad bragged about last week – revealing a previously unknown secret track toward nuclear bomb fuel, outside of that which the IAEA had been following previously. P-2 centrifuges are more sophisticated and reliable, making it easier for Iran to ramp up the production of enriched uranium.

Their other work – on plutonium, recent successful work on the 164-centrifuge cascade and announcement last week of the production of enriched uranium – and their stated ambition to install 3,000 centrifuges over the next several months is extremely worrisome. You read it here first.

With just 1,500 centrifuges running in concert, Iran could produce enough fuel for a nuclear bomb in less than a year. Iranian officials have stated they will build a full-scale 3,000-centrifuge operation later this year, with the ultimate objective of deploying 54,000 centrifuges by the end of 2007.

According to the report, "gaps remain in the Agency's [IAEA] knowledge with respect to the scope and content of Iran's centrifuge programe. Because of this, and other gaps in the Agency's knowledge, including the role of the military in Iran's nuclear programe, the Agency is unable to make progress in its efforts to provide assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran."

With Tehran continuing to defy the international community, the Security Council is expected to consider the use of strong economic and political sanctions as tools to dissuade Iran from developing nuclear weapons under Chapter VII. Thankfully, most analysts expect a Chapter VII, (i.e., legally binding resolution) to be passed in the coming weeks with or without Russian support. However, our concern remains that valuable time continues to be lost as Iran's scientists race towards technological self-sufficiency, while the international community continues to debate its reaction. The Chapter VII resolution will only provide the legal context for future sanctions, which are not expected until later this year.

The diplomatic track is most definitely coming to a dead end, and Europe will soon have to make its decision. As I have been saying for some time now, Nuclear Jihad is fast approaching and we are running out of time. At least Thug-In-Chief Ahmadinejad's infamous announcement seems to have killed any serious debate stone dead as to whether a military intervention to stop Iran from building a nuclear bomb was on the cards. Now we have that out of the way, we are still left with the never ending "Does the President have the authority"...to be the President?

Judging from the recent flurry of commentary, this seems no longer the real issue, but a foregone conclusion--I am discounting those who advocate diplomatic efforts without being backed by a credible threat of military actions, for they are simply pipe-dreams.

His announcement did however cause broadly speaking two kinds of reactions amongst both sides of the isle.

Republicans, aware...of...the...bigger...picture, are looking for international allies who might support the U.S. during the preemptive strikes; they are also working hard to determine who our foes are, both overtly and covertly.

As in the months preceding the invasion of Iraq in 2003, the council's responsibility for maintaining international peace and security is being challenged by a country that has repeatedly defied its will. Russia has hardened its opposition to economic sanctions against Iran and may well veto such a move. If so, America, the European Union and Japan will have to go ahead on their own.

Despite the high oil price, Iran's economy is its Achilles' heel. According to World Bank figures, per capita income has more than halved since the 1979 revolution. Unemployment, especially among the young, and inflation are high, and the government remains wedded to an outdated model of import substitution.

The present confrontation has already caused a withdrawal of capital and inhibited foreign investment. It is through sanctions that Washington and its allies must first put pressure on a regime whose nationalistic stridency on the nuclear issue is a cloak for its corrupt and incompetent rule.

I have to link to this take on Iran simply because it's the first time Kolmogorov has called me "one of those strange creatures, a Bellicose Christian with a visually compelling blog". I have not quite decided what I think about that yet...

Related on ATB:

The Forgotten War
Does The President Have The Authority...To Be The President
Nuclear Jihad
What Does Iran Really Want
Out Of Time Part II
Out Of Time
The Bitter Truth
The Angel Of Death
Iran Is Building A Nuclear Weapon
MSM Ignores Iran's Admission Of Guilt
Crimson Tide
Face Off
An Islamic Caliphate? No It's About The Oil Stupid
Europe's Appeasement Policy - Islam's Prodigal Son
The Effect Of Our Holy Trinity Of Multiculturalism, Moral Equivalence And Relativism On The War Of Destiny
The Firm Stand Against Iran:'No More Trips To The Paris Collections'
It's All About The Oil Stupid
The Rules Of Engagement
The Unexploded Bomb Of Global Politics
Stop Or I'll Say Stop Again
Iran Prepares For Nuclear Jihad
Has Israel Persuaded Washington?
If Israel Is The Tumor Then Iran Is The Metastasizing Cancer Part II
If Israel Is The Tumor Then Iran Is The Metastasizing Cancer Part I

Comments

[Incontro]

I've heard from those that habitate the same quarters as Dave and the gringo do that it's silly for anyone to complain about gas prices -- given that companies must deal with the threat from Iran, among other nifty excuses -- equating the price of a cup of coffee at Starbucks to a gallon of gasoline (or petrol, as you like :). I was just wondering if that crowd had any idea of the going price (and quantity measurement) of coffee?

And with that knowledge, why would a war with Iran or its potential have any influence on oil prices? Coffee is second only to oil in futures trading. Oh, and speaking of futures -- why does the price of currently available gas reflect the possible, not probable price of crude in the future? /rhetorical/

Just something to think about while simulating wargames in your head :)

[David]

"The diplomatic track is most definitely coming to a dead end... "

The sad thing is that anyone who has followed Iranian behavior for the past 30 years (let alone the last 1200 years or so--but especially since the rise of the Shiites to prominence in the 17th century) could have said that years ago.

Repeat after me: diplomatic negotiations with Muslims are seen as expressions of weakness.

While that may not be the case with a very, very few Muslims, it's a good working generalization, and will rarely fail to steer policy wisely. From the days of the Butcher of Medina, all Islam has followed the example of Mohammed: dominate with force when in a strong position; terrorize whenever that will gain a stronger position; lie and decieve whenever in a weak position. Truth is not an option, unless it can be used deceptively.

The only real diplomacy Islamic governments understand is submission to a greater force—either submission of the dar-al-harb to dar-al-islam or deceptive submission of sar-al-islam to dar-al-harb (until the table can be turned). Islamic culture is one of crafty barbarian thugs and magpies. It is a poor culture with little to commend it: few (if any) genuine accomplishments (algebra, "Arabic" numerals?--bah! Stolen from India and unused for centuries. Made their way independently to European use about the same time Muslims stated using them for... astrology). Nearly every positive thing (of which few remain at all) in Muslim culture was stolen or rag-picked off real civilizations.

Like the Iranian nuke capabilities.

It's well past time to implement some of the strategic and tactical steps recommended by Dafydd ab Hugh (Big Lizards). And what's the thing with allowing ANY of the middle eastern countries to weild the oil stick? Without their oil, they are nothing. The U.S. needs to get serious about nuclear power. Heck, pebble bed reactors (now almost "old tech") are simple enough that the Chinese are building them like crazy--some estimate China will have nearly 200 of them online in the next 15-20 years. And MIT has published prototype plans for a modular pebble bed reactor. Modular. The U.S. (still) has the monetary and manufacturing capabilities to set up a PBR factory to churn the things out.

And they are far safer and less expensive (barring eco-freak nutzo interference) than darned near anything other than hydropower.

Give the U.S. enough electricity and just watch the switch to electric vehicles... and watch (as other countries follow suit or buy their modular PBRs from the U.S.) oil prices plummet and middle eastern oil countries once again become the backwater nothings their cultures deserve to be.

Smash Iran. Really, smash it. Flat. I do not care by what means (although I believe Dafydd ab Hugh has outlined a process that could be both successful and optimum humanitarily). It'd show ME Muslim countries they really need to be careful to leave the slumbering giant alone. seriously.

Then, go big with nuclear power. Yes, there are many other means of producing enough power to offset ME oil--and short term, measures like allowing Alaskan oil development could also help. But nuclear power is safe, clean and can be relatively cheap (again, if politicians will just tell the eco-nutzos to shut up and go away)... and is much easier to implement now in a massive way than any other alternative. Gee, we even have massive amounts of nyuclear material handy from decommissioned nuclear weapons...

Heck. Confiscate the Iranian resources while we're at it. Let 'em eat cake.

But never, never, never think you can horse trade with a camel trader. Nuh-uh. Won't work. He'll cheat and then send his brother to knife you in the back.

Of course, this is all just blowing in the wind, cos politicians as a class—ours as well as Euros—have no spine and no cojones. And no character. Sure, there are a few sterling exceptions (whose sterling qualities usually tarnish quickly). But the exceptions do not rule. So, we'll have Western politicians listening to flappers telling them to negotiate right up until the moment their friendly Islamic diplomat buddy's chauffeur hands them a suitcase nuke.

Set to detonate... "now."

[gringoman]

It's been said that the lightning rod for George Bush's legacy (or maybe the splitting of it's atom?)is and will be Iran. This might be perfectly true. Unfortunately, there's another rod which is pretty powerful too,if not fissionable, and it's located right here in the once relatively insignificant domestic front, not normally the favorite venue of "Big Picture" global guys. This, as you know, is the "little" issue of borders and the tsunami of illegal "immigrants." Bush, judging by the stealth amnesty he's now supporting,(apparently thinking it's OK so long as you don't say the "A' word) either does not get it or feels too beholden to other interests, In such a bottomless bog, can he deal forcefully with Iran when he's beginning to lose not only the usual suspects, but even his own constituency who have pardoned so much, even his pc conduct in Iraq? Funny, how the local has gotten so global. A domestic crisis rebounding even on the Middle East powder keg, and just because Americans--okay, let's exclude "progressives" who do live in another world---understand that they are being invaded and occupied by a foreign power---and ironically it doesn't even speak Arabic or go in for burqas.

[Jeremayakovka]

There are many reasons to diplomatically, economically, and if necessary, militarily, coerce the Iranian regime to surrender nuclear capabilities or suffer consequences. And for artistic reasons, just ask Amir Normandi.

[Dr Victorino de la Vega]

The (deliberate?) ambiguity of the latest IAEA report on Iran is being twisted by the Neocons and their friends in government to make it appear as though Iran had done something illegal.

US Ambassador John Bolton had his prefab talking points ready yesterday: “This is a classic case of threat against international peace and security when it is combined with Iran's sponsorship of terrorism” which clearly smelled like yet another warmongering propaganda shot.

Today, faced with the tragic consequences of the Iraq quagmire and the rapid resurgence of jihadi Islamic fundamentalism from the Sinai peninsula’s posh and bobo resorts (the latter being closer to David War-Is-Peace Brooks’ heart but I’m digressing) to the inner cities and slums of Pakistan and Morocco that show the abysmal ineptness of President Bush and his gang of incompetent Neocon handlers, once cannot help recalling Brent Scowcroft’s prophetic warnings on Iraq in 2002…and the scorn with which his cautious conservative stance was received by Bush, Cheney & Co.

Back then, Neocon ideologue (and self-proclaimed “Iran expert”) Mike Ledeen summed up the Bush view in the columns of The National Review: “It's always reassuring to hear Brent Scowcroft attack one's cherished convictions […] He fears that if we attack Iraq “I think we could have an explosion in the Middle East. It could turn the whole region into a caldron and destroy the War on Terror...”

One can only hope that we turn the region into a cauldron, and faster, please. If ever there were a region that richly deserved being cauldronized, it is the Middle East today. If we wage the war effectively, we will bring down the terror regimes in Iraq, Iran, and Syria, and either bring down the Saudi monarchy or force it to abandon its global assembly line to indoctrinate young terrorists. That's our mission”

Next stop: Teheran.