North Korean Nuclear Poker

 

AP provides timeline on the missile development in North Korea:

_Aug. 31, 1998: North Korea fires a multistage Taepodong-1 missile over Japan and into the Pacific Ocean.

_Sept. 13, 1999: North Korea pledges to freeze long-range missile tests.

_Sept. 2002: North Korea pledges in summit talks with Japan to extend its moratorium on missile tests beyond 2003.

_May 2004: North Korea reaffirms its missile moratorium in summit talks with Japan.

_May 2005: North Korea fires a short-range missile into the Sea of Japan.

_March 2006: North Korea fires two short-range missiles.

_May 18: Japan says North Korea moved a missile to a launch site. Media reports identify it as a Taepodong-2.

_June 7: South Korea expresses deep concern over signs North Korea may be preparing to test fire a ballistic missile.

_June 14: The U.S. ambassador to South Korea warns of American countermeasures if North Korea conducts a missile test.

_June 16: The U.S. says a test of a Taepodong-2 long-range missile may be imminent.

_June 18: North Korea vows to increase its "military deterrent" to cope with what it called U.S. attempts to provoke war.

_June 20: A North Korean official is quoted as saying the country is not bound by 2002 Pyongyang Declaration moratorium on missile tests.

_June 21: U.S. President George W. Bush warns North Korea faces further isolation if it test fires a long-range missile.

_June 21: A North Korean diplomat in New York demands direct talks with the U.S. Washington rejects the demand.

_June 28: Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao says North Korea should refrain from aggravating regional tensions with missile launch.

_June 29: Bush warns a North Korean missile launch is unacceptable. Visiting Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi says a launch would be followed by "various pressures."

_July 3: North Korea says it would respond to a pre-emptive U.S. military attack with an "annihilating strike and a nuclear war."

_July 5: North Korea launches a series of missiles.

This timeline speaks volumes about North Korean intent, despite the pathetic claim of Han Song Ryol, the deputy chief of North Korea's mission to the UN: "We diplomats do not know what the military is doing." Sounds familiar, have they been picking up diplomatic tips from Hamas?

The London Telegraph puts the timing of the tests into context:

The development of the Taepodong 2, which is believed to have a range of more than 3,000 miles, enabling it in theory to reach Alaska, has intensified US worries about the volatile North Korean regime. [...]

The crisis has occurred at an extremely difficult time for the Bush administration as it tries to corral its European allies and Russia and China into taking punitive action against Iran over its nuclear programme.

Teheran has been set a deadline of a week today to respond to an offer of economic and political incentives for it to suspend its uranium enrichment programme.

North Korea and Iran are believed to draw encouragement from the other's defiance of Mr Bush's efforts to persuade them to abandon their nuclear ambitions.

Washington officials speculated that North Korea was hoping that by creating a crisis it could persuade the Bush administration to come to the negotiating table. This week the regime threatened to respond with an "annihilating" nuclear strike if America attacked.

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's time to examine the effectiveness of Clinton's economic and political incentives package granted in return for North Korea's agreement to stop its nuclear-weapons program. Part of the deal were two light-water nuclear reactors that, under safeguards, would generate electricity. Sounds familiar? It should, because that's what we are now proposing to give to Iran.

Well, we know of course what to expect from Iran, because within three years after Clinton's diplomatic efforts, North Korea had begun using a second method to acquire fissile material. It's well worth re-reading The New Yorker's detailed backgrounder: "This time, instead of using spent fuel, scientists were trying to produce weapons-grade uranium from natural uranium—with Pakistani technology."

Any reason to believe why Iran should act any differently? I don't think so. Also, given Iran's Oil billions, the Mullahs are less likely to be as inept as North Korea is widely believed to be in its effort to build a nuclear warhead small enough to fit on a missile. Nuclear poker is being played, and the belligerent North Korea have just raised the stakes. The financial markets have reacted by selling off the yen, "suggesting that they are ratcheting up the probability of something bad happening". China and Russia refuse to play ball.

How should we deal with North Korea? China favors secret, behind closed doors negotiations and is likely to continue to pursue that avenue irrespective of what the rest of the world does. That means that food and vital supplies are likely to continue to flow into North Korea, rendering UN or any other sanctions ineffective. But it also means, that U.S.-Japanese plans to develop a system that could shoot down an incoming warhead have received a significant boost; a reality dreaded by China.

At least Japan's 6-months ban of a major North Korean ferry will hurt as it is a major conduit of trade between the two countries: "North Korean ships making port calls in Japan often come under scrutiny because of allegations that the vessels supply the North with hard currency and parts for its weapons programs."

"North Korea wants to get the U.S. to direct bilateral negotiations by using the missile card," said Paik Hak-soon, a North Korea expert at the Seoul-based Sejong Institute. "Timing the launch date on July 4 is an attempt to apply maximum pressure on the U.S. government."

It all sounds to me quite a bit like a temper tantrum gone wrong by Kim Jong il. Despite all the posturing of the past months, he had received no juicy economic and political incentive offers. Zip. Meanwhile Iran steals all the international limelight amongst rogue states and their sympathizers. Kim Jong iI can't have that, can he. Too bad that his missile test failed so miserably. Ed Morrissey:

Pyongyang apparently planned these launches to coincide with the American launch of the space shuttle to distract attention from the space program. They certainly got everyone's attention, but they probably wish they hadn't. The failure of all three is a huge embarrassment to the Kim regime. It appears clear that while Pyongyang continues to build missiles, they don't build them particularly well -- and the billions of dollars spent in development has gone up in smoke, or down in the Sea of Japan, as it were.

CNN reports from its Situation Room that the missiles fell into the sea just offshore of the northern island of Hokkaido. That seems to indicate that North Korea sent the missile on a route that would have taken the missile towards Alaska, or perhaps a polar route to North America. Shooting missiles at the US on our national holiday guarantees a rather hostile reaction from America.

But I hazard a guess that in the end, his gamble will pay off. We'll resume talks, throw in a little of the usual 'stop or I'll say stop again' tactics, offer incentives, carrots rather than sticks, and thus help North Korea on their final stretch to perfect the missiles and add the all important atomic warhead design. All this, to achieve the respect he craves so desperately, respect which slips further and further out of his reach.

Don't worry though, Nancy Pelosi has it in hand. Ahem.

Comments

[Crusader.NoRegrets.]

Never mind the hair, I think I know what happened when Kim Jong-Illness went to shop for glasses:

Ill: "How do these look?"

Bodyguard: (snickering)

Masseuse: (uncontrollable giggling)

Ill: "Take these irriots outside and shoot them. Geez, why is evryborry so f****ng syoopid?"

Store Clerk: "Those are perfect, Mr President. They just scream to the world 'I am a great man'. Really you, sir. Just fantastic!"

[gringoman]

[Extension of previous comment]

As Little Kim (the Jong who is Ill), keeps the world on edge, suddenly acting up again, taking time out from his vast collection of pornography, playing with his missiles in test firings, talking tough, harrowing Japan, threatening even the U.S. with "nuclear punishment," rubbing it in Yankee faces with NoKo missile launches timed for July 4 and the NASA Discovery space-shuttle launch, no one---certainly not the Dems and Pubs in Washington---is officially pointing the finger at the culprit who is un-named. Why? Why such reluctance? Why won't they admit that the real problem is not in Pyongyang, but with its puppet masters in Beijing? How long would it take China to throw starving, dysfunctional North Korea's chubby little obscenity to his own wolves (probably military) by cutting off all shipments of food and fuel etc? How long would it take to lance long-suffering North Korea's virulent abcess, and without any need of Chinese military intervention, or overwhelming South Korea with refugees from the socialist North? About a week? Maybe Washington can't act, despite its superpower. But can't it fine-tune the diplomacy enough for some straight talk ?....

[Michael van der Galien]

Kim Jong Il is nothing but a paranoid porn addict.
He's like a messed up little kid, that should be put in a boot camp.

That dude is a joke.

Except for the fact that he has WMD's and is developing the missiles he needs to reach the US...

[Kenny Pierce]

Ghost,

LOL, that's the best question I've heard anybody ask in this whole episode. Do you think maybe he's secretly been hanging out with Don King?

[Ymarsakar]

What happened to gunboat diplomacy? We MADed out the Soviets, and now Kim with 2 nukes that they haven't even tested, are holding us hostage? This is like the twilight zone.

[gringoman]

Looks like the trainloads of aid into North Korea may be slowing down. The Chinese aren't too happy to send aid, when the Norks keep the train it came in.

Posted by: Mike Anderson | Wednesday, July 05, 2006 at 02:22 PM
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Mentally Ill is surprising his Chinese masters who know him as well as a useful little half-puppet can be known? If they've really had "enough" why don't they just suspend all shipments until the military adults give Kooky his due? How long would that take? A week?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

What I really fail to understand about Kim Chong Il is his hair. How does he get it to stand up like that?

Posted by: Ghost Dansing | Wednesday, July 05, 2006 at 03:49 PM

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

They say it's not deliberate. Unintended consequences. He keeps hoping the Viagra will work

[Ghost Dansing]

What I really fail to understand about Kim Chong Il is his hair. How does he get it to stand up like that?

[Mike Anderson]

Looks like the trainloads of aid into North Korea may be slowing down. The Chinese aren't too happy to send aid, when the Norks keep the train it came in.

[gringoman]

Ah, the farce of it all! The question now being: will it devolve into tragi-farce, as the "great powers" diplomatize and diplomatize? The Boys from Beijing could close down NoKo tomorrow, if they chose World Cup fans probably can figure that out too. Who doesn't understand that NoKo and its chubby little nuke kook, Kim Jong, is China's pet pit bull? How slick of them (and arguably as clever as any mullah). Even when Little Kim acts up and plays with his missiles, the Beijingers get to observe the quality of American response and will, whether diplomatic or military (not to mention the rest of the, uh, "world community".)

Who doesn't know this? Even Washington must know it.

But who will admit it publicly?

[epaminondas]

Maybe it's just silly me, but what is the point of having discussions to create negotiations to create an agreement which the other side has already PROVEN they will cheat on?

Can someone explain the advantage to the USA?