The Muslim Brotherhood And Hezbollah Detonate The Political Bomb

 

BREAKING: Israeli warplanes have attacked a major Lebanese army air base near the Syrian border. It's the first strike on the Lebanese army in Israel's fight with Hezbollah guerrillas.

BREAKING II: Haifa has been hit by two rockets, Hezbollah deny responsibility. Allah @ Hot Air "attack staged by Iran", Saudis are blaming Hezbollah and not Israel for the crisis, plus video.

BREAKING III: Hezbollah denies wanting the soldiers moved to Iran.

Nearly 40 years of pin-point targeted response to Arab rabid hostilities has lead to this perverse situation where the West pays the Palestinian officials, synonymous with the term 'terrorists', billions of Dollars so that they can keep spitting into Israel's face.

Today, we face the ugly reality, that the world at large has been successfully duped to believe that Israel is the aggressor and all the Islamic terrorist organizations are her victims. Now that Hamas has joined the ranks of other terrorist organizations in Government, namely the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt (scroll down and read a useful historical overview - a "key to understanding today's Islamic war against the West") and Hezbollah in Lebanon, it is of even greater importance to spread the truth and point the fingers at these murdering thugs as the sole aggressors in this conflict. It is important to remember at all times, that the Muslim Brotherhood, Hezbollah and Hamas are all united behind their common call for the destruction of Israel.

Plus, we must always remember, that Iran and Saudi Arabia, and to a lesser extent Syria, are controlling the purse strings of all of them; and naturally have huge influence.

Egypt and Israel maintain that the orders regarding the kidnapping of Cpl Shalit have been coming from the Damascus based Hamas leader Khaled Mashal, that he is masterminding the terms of Shalit's release - after all Mashal declared only Tuesday that he - not Abbas or Haniyeh - is the sole spokesman for the Palestinians, that he is 'the man'. He certainly told the world on 9 December 2005, when addressing a crowd in Damascus, that the informal truce with Israel would end at the end of the year, stating that, "We will not enter a new truce and our people are preparing for a new round of conflict."

Now, Mashal in turn takes his orders directly from his lord and protector, Bashir Assad of Syria. So, it really is one great big happy family out to destroy Israel and to make Arab lands 'Judenrein'.

Somewhere along the way we had an epiphany, whether a lasting one, I cannot tell, nevertheless let us not look a gift-horse in the mouth as they say

The US blamed Syria and Iran for the kidnapping and the ensuing violence. "We condemn in the strongest terms Hizbullah's unprovoked attack on Israel and the kidnapping of the two Israeli soldiers," National Security Council spokesman Frederick Jones said.

Well, about time....

If Israel does indeed declare war, she may be forced to include the treacherous Syria, who has been pulling the strings of far too many terrorist attacks.

What will Israel's allies do? Tony Blair is bogged down and President Bush in much the same situation....

At least, that is how the murdering thugs interpret the international situation. Why else go all out at this particular time? The answers are all too transparent. After all Iran plays its cards rather like an open secret and if we keep on allowing it to do so, the 'stop or I'll say stop again' threats and UN's "profound disappointment" will only serve to embolden its resolve to wipe Israel off the map. How convenient all this must be for our Thug-In-Chief.

Just last Friday, Iranian President Ahmadinejad warned that Israel’s return to Gaza could lead to an “explosion” in the Islamic world that would target Israel and its supporters in the West. “They should not let things reach a point where an explosion occurs in the Islamic world,” he said.

“If an explosion occurs, then it won’t be limited to geographical boundaries. It will also burn all those who created [Israel] over the past 60 years,” he said, implicitly referring to America and other Western nations who support Israel.

Years from now, the kidnapping of Corporal Gilad Shalit will be regarded like the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand. Against the backdrop of Kassam rocket fire on Israelis living within range of the Gaza Strip, it was the fate of Corporal Shalit that triggered the Israeli return to Gaza, which in turn brought the Hezbollah forces into the game.

One must however not forget that the assassination of Egyptian President Muhammad Anwar al Sadat by Jihad Islami (more violent and radical than The Muslim Brotherhood), occurred precisely because he had signed the Peace Agreement with its neighboring Israel. When Mubarak came into power in 1981, and declared war against The Muslim Brotherhood, he severely damaged their infrastructure for a while, but that temporary setback did not last long. Nothing has changed, and nothing will, until we realize that peace has never been the goal. Mubarak certainly knows that:

There were also signs that Egypt was growing impatient with Syria in the crisis. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak implicitly accused Damascus of wrecking his attempts to mediate a deal for the release of Cpt. Cpl. Gilad Shalit, snatched by Hamas-linked militants on June 25.

Hamas was subjected to "counter-pressures by other parties, which I don't want to name but which cut the road in front of the Egyptian mediation and led to the failure of the deal after it was about to be concluded," Mubarak told Cairo's Al-Ahram Al-Massai newspaper.

Today, Assad's puppet Syrian VP Farouk al-Sharaa is of course blaming Israel for escalating the "provocation of the Lebanese and Palestinian people". I love the way he sneaks in the Lebanese people in there now, lumped in together with the Palestinians. Considering Lebanon has only just recently somewhat freed itself from Syrian clutches, it's a little bit of wishful thinking on his part, reflecting more what his hopes are. All this, whilst he is standing right next to Machiavelli himself Ali Larijani, the Iranian chief nuclear negotiator, with that calm but deadly deceptive smirk.

As Israel's Defense Minister said this morning on CNN, the Lebanese Government has decided to enable terrorists to operate within their sovereign state under the pretext of a legitimate national resistance force. This is in flagrant violation of their membership of the UN, and therefore will be treated to the same considerations as those whose existence they have chosen to protect.

How is it that normal people are still letting slightly-to-very-fanatic people get away with dropping phrases about Zionist expansionism (see inter alia: Cole, Juan). Every single strategic decision that Israel has made this century has been to reduce the land that it controls. In fact, wideeyed anti-Zionist conspiracy theories aside, that was true for most of the end of the last century too. So the question arises: when "Zionists" (not "Jews", of course) are accused of cunning and shadowy conspiracies meant to sow discord among otherwise peaceful neighbors, is this the product of a linguistic habit borne of a rhetorical comfort zone that plays on certain, shall we say, unsavory registers? Or are some of these people so far gone that they actually believe those mysteriously predictable conspiracy theories? We think we might know the answer.

So, the stage is set for the political bomb to explode and for Israel to be forced into a three-front war:

Israel faces the danger of a third front if Syria steps in to assist Hezbollah. Strategically, Israel faces an extreme foursome: Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran. Two extremist Islamic organizations considered terror organizations, and two states Washington names in the Axis of Evil.

Israel has no choice but to hold Lebanon responsible for what happens in its borders and for what comes out of it. Lebanon will likely wail as Israel strikes inside its territory and hits its infrastructure, but the Lebanese government must see itself as responsible for what Hezbollah does out of Lebanon. Particularly since Lebanon essentially rejected UN resolution 1559, which called for disarming the militia. Hamas and Hezbollah made the rules of the game with the ongoing rocket fire into Israel and the abduction of Israeli soldiers. If Israel loses in handling this, its strategic and military standing in the region will change and its deterrence of guerrilla warfare and high-trajectory weapons will be undermined.

The UN  will carry on with its hand wringing folly, but in the process provide the stage for more Arab-Islamic propaganda, dutifully aired by the usual suspects CNN and BBC World, that is if they can connect the dots.

UPDATE: Both Hugh Hewitt and I initially thought the left was completely silent on this subject, seemingly utterly incapable of dealing with serious issues, finding a Bush conspiracy theory angle, or otherwise claiming to ignore them until slapped in the face by the debris, or "background noise" until....Daily Kos woke up, writing the most unbelievable anti-Israel propaganda. Meryl Yourish pulverizes this high-school drivel word for word, saving us all some unpleasant work....then some crystal clear sanity arrives from Jeff Weintraub @ TPM and saves the day. He points us to an excellent article from Klein Halevi @ The New Republic, which is a must read [free-reg required, but Jeff has some important excerpts, and the article is reproduced in full here (h/t Jeremayakovka) ]

A few recent related posts on ATB:
The Washington Post Inaugurates The New Moderate
Unmasking The Hamas Code Of Honor
'Israel Cannot Succeed By Empowering Terrorists'
'Pallywood Does Not Recognize Israel
'The Palestinian-Spin-Of-The-Century' The World's Most Audacious Marketing Coup'
Total War

More @ LGF, Power Line , Powerline (2), Captain's Quarters, Captain's Quarters (2), Captain's Quarters (3), Pajamas Media, Hot Air, Roger L. Simon , Winds of Change, Protein Wisdom, Vital Perspective, RedState, Liberty and Justice (1), Liberty and Justice (2), Liberty and Justice (3), Wizbang, Wizbang (2), Gateway Pundit, The Moderate Voice, Euphoric Reality, The Jawa Report Kesher Talk, Sister Toldjah, Mere Rhetoric, The Jawa Report, Yourish. Atlas Shrugs, Soccer Dad, The RCP Blog, Israel Matzav (2), PoliPundit, Flopping Aces, Confederate Yankee, Daimnation! Blue Crab Boulevard, Atlas Shrugs (2), The Real Ugly American, Yourish (2),  Ace, Iraq The Model, Austin Bay Blog, Dr. Sanity, TigerHawk, Riehl World View, Shrinkwrapped, Blue Star Chronicles, Blue Crab Boulevard, American Future, The Corner, The Real Ugly American (2), The Big Pharaoh, A Blog For All, Kesher Talk (2), The Glittering Eye, Israellycool, Israel At Level Ground, Israel Matzav, Hyscience, Blue Crab Boulevard (2), Daimnation! (2), Israel Matzav (3), The Glittering Eye  (2) Anti-Idiotarian Rottweiler, Atlas Shrugs (3),The Lebanese Bloggers 

Comments

[Kenny Pierce]

Because we aren't one; we're several billion, many of whom hate many of the others. Why can't you count?

At least I now know that I can sleep with your wife with impunity, since, you and I being one, it won't be adultery -- just masturbation.

Now, having teased you (cheerfully, I might add, which might surprise you), let's try to get serious: what can you possibly mean here? Are you calling for the abolishing of private property (won't go with you on that one)? Are you calling for people to stop talking as though groups of people (whether ethnic or religio-cultural) have innate "rights" to some land or the other (in which case I completely agree with you)? Or what?

[Dan]

God help us for those that think they own a piece of what you have give. That is both Israelis and Palestinians. We are one on this earth. Why don't you see that.

[Alexandra]

xxx

[chrys]

The impressive becomes extreme! These colors are MUCH better than pink - fits the upper-class content of your writing and graphics better! Pink's for "girls" - you're way past the "girlie stage" Baroness von Maltzan. Then - you knew this already. Personally?

[North by Northwest]

John Bolton's statement on today's draft Security Council resolution vetoed by the US really does say it all, doesn't it:

The draft Resolution before the Council was unbalanced. It placed demands on one side in the Middle East conflict but not the other. This draft Resolution would have exacerbated tensions in the region and would have undermined our vision of two democratic states, Israel and Palestine, living side-by-side in peace and security.

Passage would also have undermined the credibility of the Security Council, which itself must be seen by both sides as an honest broker in the Middle East conflict. In this regard, public statements of UN officials must also accurately reflect positions agreed by member governments.

The United States worked hard with other delegations to achieve a more balanced text, one which acknowledged that Israeli military actions were in direct response to repeated rocket attacks into Southern Israel from Gaza and the June 25 abduction of Israeli Defense Force Corporal Gilad Shalit by Hamas. Regrettably, we were not able to reach consensus.

While we remain gravely concerned about the deterioration of the situation in the West Bank and Gaza, we remain steadfast in our conviction that the best way to resolve the immediate crisis is for Hamas to secure the safe and unconditional release of Corporal Shalit.

Establishing the foundations for a lasting peace, however, will require us to focus our attention not just on Hamas, but on the state sponsors of terror who back them -- particularly Syria and Iran. Let us be clear that without the financial and material support of Damascus and Tehran, Hamas would be severely crippled in carrying out its terrorist operations. We call upon Syria and Iran to end their role as state sponsors of terror and unequivocally condemn the actions of Hamas, including this kidnapping. We yet again call upon Syria to arrest the Hamas ringleader, Khaled Meshal, who currently resides in Damascus. We stress again our condemnation of Syrian and Iranian support of Hizballah, which has claimed responsibility for the other kidnappings along the Blue Line between Israel and Lebanon.

We further call on the Palestinian Authority government to stop all acts of violence and terror and comply with the principles enunciated by the Quartet: renounce terror, recognize Israel, and accept previous obligations and agreements, including the Roadmap. The failure of the Palestinian Authority government to take these steps hurts the Palestinian people.

[Luther McLeod]

Truth 9/11, you are a nut.

[Truth 9/11]

[Deleted by ATB, completely off topic, spam-like. You are right Luther. Long off topic comments like this, are designed to derail threads.
To Mr.Anonymous@anonymous.com, you are welcome to post it on my 'Charlie Sheen 9/11 conspiracy theory' post here where it belongs]

[North by Northwest]

Liquid,

You are right, Israel has been forced to realize that a peaceful co-existence with those who seek her destruction is impossible. Sharon realized that any attempts to heal the cancer failed miserably. Cutting it out seemed to be no option until of course Hamas swept into government.

Olmert is redefining Israel's entire approach to its neighbors because Hamas and Hezbollah have left him no other choice.

Syria's young Sadat is playing with fire and will get burned, while Ahmadinejad with his Iranian mullahcracy pulls the strings.

Angel,

They will not cease till they kill the infidels

And that's why Michale Ledeen wants us to act now:

In this war, there is no meaningful distinction between Iran and Syria, they work in tandem. It’s just that Iran gives the orders and Syria obeys. [...]

The important thing to keep in mind is that both the Gaza and northern Israel attacks were planned for quite a while, which means that Iran wanted this war, this way. It isn’t just a target of opportunity or a sudden impulse; it’s part of a strategic decision to expand the war.

Iran has been at war with us all along, because that’s what the world’s leading terror state does. The scariest thing about this moment is that the Iranians have convinced themselves that they are winning, and we are powerless to reverse the tide. [...]

The only way we are going to win this war is to bring down those regimes in Tehran and Damascus, and they are not going to fall as a result of fighting between their terrorist proxies in Gaza and Lebanon on the one hand, and Israel on the other. Only the United States can accomplish it.

Last week, President Mikheil Shaakashvili of free Georgia came to Washington and reminded us–not that it was much noticed — of America’s revolutionary mission. But President Bush heard it. “I just sent over to President Bush the letter that Georgian freedom fighters sent...seven years ago, and it never made it to the White House. It was intercepted by KGB and all the people who wrote it were shot,” Mr. Saakashvili said during a visit with the president in the Oval Office. “I'm sure lots of people out there in Korea (and he might well have added, Syria and Iran) are writing similar letters today. And I'm sure that those letters will, eventually, (arrive)...because that's a part of the freedom agenda that President Bush has and we strongly believe in.”

As do millions of Syrians and Iranians. And you know what? Millions of Arabs all over the Middle East do too. Give them a chance to fight for their freedom, as we did with the Georgians. The longer we dither, the more likely it becomes that we will sadly and unnecessarily find ourselves in a military confrontation of some sort, with all the terrible consequences that entails.

Faster, please. Your options are narrowing. You cannot escape the mullahs. You must either defeat them or submit to their terrible vision. There is no other way.

Ghost,

As long as you take what the UN sells as one of its historical success stories with a hefty dose of salt and remain circumspect in view of their blatantly misleading statement suggesting that Arafat, the PLO or Fatah had ever recognized Israel's right to exist and to remain as a sovereign state on Arab soil. Nothing could be further from the truth, but the resident spin-doctors at the UN still claim that "A series of subsequent negotiations [following the '91 Peace Conference in Madrid] culminated in the mutual recognition between the Government of the State of Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization, the representative of the Palestinian People."

The nerve...

[Ghost Dansing]

The Palestine problem became an international issue towards the end of the First World War with the disintegration of the Turkish Ottoman Empire. Palestine was among the several former Ottoman Arab territories which were placed under the administration of Great Britain under the Mandates System adopted by the League of Nations pursuant to the League's Covenant (Article 22) .

All but one of these Mandated Territories became fully independent States, as anticipated. The exception was Palestine where, instead of being limited to "the rendering of administrative assistance and advice" the Mandate had as a primary objective the implementation of the "Balfour Declaration" issued by the British Government in 1917, expressing support for "the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people".

During the years of the Palestine Mandate, from 1922 to 1947, large-scale Jewish immigration from abroad, mainly from Eastern Europe took place, the numbers swelling in the 1930s with the notorious Nazi persecution of Jewish populations. Palestinian demands for independence and resistance to Jewish immigration led to a rebellion in 1937, followed by continuing terrorism and violence from both sides during and immediately after World War II. Great Britain tried to implement various formulas to bring independence to a land ravaged by violence. In 1947, Great Britain in frustration turned the problem over to the United Nations.

The question of Palestine and Israel commanded the attention of the UN since the organization was founded. The UN General Assembly voted the original partition of the land in November 1947 and the UN deployed its first peacekeeping operation to monitor the ceasefire lines after the war of 1948.

The United Nations has been involved in various problems in the Middle East since 1947. Whereas the Korean War and the Congo issue were settled in the sense that there was no further outbreak of hostilities, the United Nations has not managed to do the same in the Middle East. Wars have broken out in 1948, 1956, 1967 and 1973 and severe problems exist to this day.

[Angel]

"...destroying its poisonous culture of violence, death-worship, and Jew-hatred..."..That world view will never be destroyed...They will not cease till they kill the infidels......sigh. excellent overview Alexandra! :)

[North by Northwest]

Well said, Slowtrain.

“We must have our way, everyone else must accept it” really sums up what Ahmadinejad and his Islamic, terrorist cohorts are all about.

Israel is clearly aware of Iran's ambitions and its push for Middle Eastern hegemony. We are treated to front-row seats as the long simmering power struggle between the Islamist adventures (Iran & Syria with its terrorist proxies Muslim Brotherhood, Hezbollah, Hamas etc) and incumbent feudal and near autocratic regimes (Saudi, Egypt) erupts over the Israel's response to Hamas's and Hezbollah's provocations.

There is no realistic hope of changing anti-Semitic sentiment among the Arab nations and its people for a long time. All the more important is to achieve a balance of power, which is not dependent on the support of regional despots and dictators, who in turn suppress any chance of economic growth, but instead keeps the Islamist adventurers from spreading their wings.

Strategically and tactically it never seemed more important for our military might to be firmly positioned in Iraq and Afghanistan and to protect and oversea the burgeoning democratic forces unfolding there, in Lebanon and throughout the Middle East.

If in years to come pragmatic governments and leaders concentrate on furthering economic growth in the Middle East as opposed to lunatics like Ahmadinejad with his world-domination delusions, I believe that will be solely due to Bush's and Blair's resolve to take the plunge and stay the course. It will be due to a handful of statesmen who followed their convictions that ultimately more good will come from doing what is right than doing what is politically and diplomatically safe; that the “win-win” concept had to be brought to the region in view of the mounting danger posed by said Islamist adventurers.

I remember so vividly the vociferous derision of the Reagan/Thatcher policies throughout the 80'ies confronting the Soviet Union head on to bring an end to the cold war. Things didn't always look peachy during that time either and many mistakes were made. But standing strong and doing the right thing paid off for all immeasurably.

The same dynamic is playing out right in front of our eyes in the face of the Islamic threat escalating throughout the world with all the usual suspects again deriding the courageous few and acting all obstreperously as their isolationist and appeasement demands are being ignored.

[Liquid]

But seriously, when will the world realise that "while waiting and hoping to remake Palestinian society from the bottom up" (which IMHO, would take more than one generation of mind and heart cleansing) that Israel can only hold it's hand up for so long and hold back the 'constant hate and murder' that is shoved in it's face 24/7...and remember that at least being in Lebanon now, that it might be able to take out some of those Hezoballah rockets that have been pointing towards Israel.

I feel for ALL of the civilians that are caught in the mess and I do pray for peace within the region, but I totally support Israel! It's doing what it feels it has to do! Everytime I hear someone blame Israel I just get perplexed at the attitude that Israel doesn't have any right to fight back! They gotta do what they gotta do!

[slowtrain]

It would seem that the Israeli-Palestinian issue has reached a point of no return. The Palestinian attitude, indeed the Arab attitude and by extension the attitude of Muslims toward Israel is not driven or sustained by the purity of objective reasoning, mutual peace, common mutual decency, and fairness, but by malice and the desire to harm Jews and to destroy Israel.

Ultimately, this has led to the vicious cycle of strife and vendetta; a perpetual mutual animosity and hostility toward each other. This situation has robbed the people of the true essence of fairness, peace, and goodwill toward each other. Obviously, the situation has more to do with Palestinians, particularly Hamas and other Islamic entities such as Hezbollah, the Muslim Brotherhood, Islamic Jihad, etc., and virtually all Arabs who believe that Israel has no right to exist as a nation, and have resolved to seek the extermination of the Jewish state.

The unwillingness, perhaps inability of Palestinians to negotiate in good faith and to make compromises (mutual concessions) when it is the only way forward is more or less a cultural inhibitor. After all, when it comes to reaching an arrangement in a struggle and disagreement, the concept of compromise is non existent in the Arabic culture, particularly with respect to non Arabs or non Muslims. Interestingly, there is a “win-win” concept in Arabic called taarradhin (“I win, you win”), but unfortunately, for all practical purposes, it tends to mean “We must have our way, everyone else must accept it”.

Obviously, as a means for settling a disagreement, the concept is as untenable as hakuna matata (a problem free philosophy); it is a meaningless and unrealistic proposition. It is worthy of note that the concept of taarradhin is a foundational precept of Islam (a religion with Arabic origin) and which frequently necessitates jihad. Hence it is incapable and has not produced a "I win; you win situation” anywhere in the world, not even in Arabia. It is the single reason for the inability of Muslims in the West to integrate into Western societies.

They are not inclined to mutual resolutions in anything. They are hopelessly predisposed to “unreasoned violence”, which explains why the Palestinians are prepared to sacrifice tens, perhaps hundreds of Palestinian lives and the loss of key infrastructure, for the life of one Israeli soldier. But then again, as unreasoned as it may be, it is just as much an asymmetrical warfare as the suicide bombers.

I agree with North by Northwest that the only solution for lasting peace in the Middle East “is the enormously difficult one of remaking Palestinian society from the bottom up. Of destroying its poisonous culture of violence, death-worship, and Jew-hatred. Of educating its people for democracy and tolerance. Of replacing its cruel and corrupt rulers with leaders genuinely committed to moderation.” However, it must be realized that this inhibitive culture is not uniquely Palestinian, it is an Arab culture and by extension an Islamic culture. Therefore, “destroying poisonous culture of violence, death-worship, and Jew-hatred”, must begin at a higher level, it must begin with Islam itself. As everyone knows, Hamas, Hezbollah, etc. exist in large part to serve those foreign governments and people that urge them and fund them, particularly Iran, Saddam’s Iraq, and Saudi Arabia where hatred of Jews and Christians are taught from infancy as academic curriculum and a cultural virtue.

[North by Northwest]

Aristides said:

We must remember that the plan to capture the prisoner was disseminated five months ago. Now, it's possible they just wanted a hostage to trade, and it's possible it was just a petty swipe at Israel. It's also possible this is, as I said earlier, a designed prelude.

I also remember Ledeen saying something about Iran planning "three crises" for us in the region before the UNSC decides its course vis Iran's nukes. Without confirmation we don't know if this is even accurate information, but it's worth considering.

Now, let's talk about transferring the captured soldier to Iran. Whether this was planned all along, or whether this move is opportunistic, it shows me two things: 1) As Tigerhawk said, Iran is positioning itself as the Muslim champion against the Zionists and the guarantor of the Palestinian agenda. 2) It also is a glimpse of what could happen if Iran had nukes. Every act of terrorism, every kidnapping, could be ultimately underwritten and protected by the Mullahs and their bomb.

Another thing that we must at least address. Tom Holsinger thinks Iran already has a few nukes (Luttwak dismisses this as preposterous). If that is so, it changes the analysis somewhat.

But let's deal first with what we know:

1. The decision to capture Shalit two weeks ago was given by Mashaal, who gave the order from Damascus. The Palestinian chapter of Hamas was not in charge, and couldn't successfully intervene.

2. Egypt was very close to diffusing the situation. Israel had agreed to multiple prisoner transfers. This would have been a political victory for Hamas. Mashaal and Damascus (and Iran?) wanted something more than a political victory, because they sabotaged the deal.

3. The Hezbollah border raid and kidnapping, a plan that was disseminated five months, was executed coincident with this crisis. More precisely, the plan was executed almost to the day that Mashaal and Damascus sabotaged Egypts deal. Hezbollah takes its orders from Damascus and Teheran.

4. Therefore, not only did they reject a short-term political victory, they deliberately decided to up the stakes.

5. Syria was recently kicked out of Lebanon by the new Lebanese government after Syrian intelligence assets assassinated PM Hariri. We know from their statements that the Lebanese government was not aware of Hezbollah's operation.

6. Five months ago the IAEA decided to refer Iran to the UNSC.

7. The EU-3 has now done the same.

8. The Bush Administration has issued a statement of unqualified support for Israeli actions. The Europeans and Russia are calling for proportionate responses.

Now for some speculation:

1. If, as Tigerhawk argues, Iran's regional aspirations are tied to its opposition to Israel and its support for the Palestinian agenda, then Iran has maneuvered itself conceptually to a place where it can never be seen to back down from any real or perceived Zionist attack. If Israel escalates this thing anymore--and they may already have escalated to a sufficient degree--Iran must respond or it will lose its long-sought prestige. If Iran desires to be the anti-Israel, it must show it here. If Hezbollah get's dismantled without Iran doing anything, that might just be intolerable for the Mullahs' self-perception. Therefore, war may already be determined.

2. If Iran has nukes, then they need war with the Zionists. And this was not, therefore, a miscalculation.

3. If they don't have nukes, why tempt Israel by asking for the captured soldier? Merely for propaganda?

Finally, is this merely a way for Syria to get back at the Lebanese government? They have motive.

[North by Northwest]

It goes on with skipsailing chiming in:

Please permit one additional thought on this.

the wild card I see is Maschaal. he's Hamas, He's in Syria and he's talking rapidly right now.

If this person does in fact represent the true authority over Hamas, does Israel have the option of military action against him in Damascus?

To me Mashaal and Shalit are now intertwined. Just as archduke ferdinand was the ignition point for a great war, I see no reason why these two men can't be viewed as the ignition point for the final ME confrontation.

the problem with an Iranian dominated region is that it will never be enough. Today Syria tomorrow the world. Ceding significant influence in the ME to Iran is simply kicking the can down the road for our grandkids.

One of the issues I see, and I am impressed with the analysis of both Tigerhawk and our gracious host, is that the former power brokers in the region were'nt any damned good either. The saudi's funded the current mass psychosis and the egyptians have done nothing of value to bring peace to the region.

so it seems we need a third option: a manufactured ally in Iraq. If the Iranians have proxies, why shouldn't the US?

[North by Northwest]

wretchard replied to TigerHawk:

I like your framework, but what leadership does Iran crave exactly? It must be more than psychological. Hegemony must have an actual physical basis. Syria's interest in Lebanon was money. That and the power to organize "militants" against Israel. So my speculation -- out of pure ignorance I'll admit up front -- is that after Saddam went south, Syria needed an ally to hold on to its tatters and in consequence became strange bedfellows with Iran. Lebanon and Hezbollah is the crown jewel of Iranian foreign policy. They are a physical expression of Iran's hegemonic ambitions. The token of their leadership.

Recent Israeli actions are holding part of Iran's power base at risk. How will they defend? Through Syria. The sea and air are closed to them.

If the Iranians were smart, they would let the Israelis just punch themselves out. But then, the Israelis can keep coming back. They have a clear geographic advantage over Iran in dealing with Hezbollah. So sooner or later Iran must act to defend the very basis of hegemony. How? Always Syria. Boy Assad is probably being asked to listen to things from Teheran that he doesn't want to hear.

I haven't thought this through clearly, but it seems to me that Syria and Iran are sorely tempted to react in some way. The next step on the staircase.

[North by Northwest]

TigerHawk replied to wretchard:

I suppose my quick reaction to your last comment is:

1. Agree that Hez probably did not plan for a full-scale war against Israel, or at least Israel hopes this.

2. I think the biggest restraint on Israel vis Syria is the concern about the endgame. It is one thing to put Assad in a tiny little lockbox, and quite another to topple him from power. Israel is not stupid, and has to worry about what comes next.

3. As is obvious from my comment, I don't think Iran is presently worried about a "second front." That is not to say that it shouldn't be, but it seems to have a leadership that is preoccupied with enhancing its prestige in the region at almost any cost to its economy and the "security dilemma" it otherwise confronts (i.e., increasing the Western opposition to the Islamic Republic). Indeed, this is arguably a third, fourth or fifth front, if we look at the nuclear confrontation, Afghanistan, the subversion in southern Iraq, the shadow war in Kurdistan and the caucuses, etc., as other significant management challenges facing the Iranian regime. Perhaps, like Hitler's government, Ahmadinejad and the current crop of clerics are blind to imperial overstretch. It has happened before.

Then again, I could be all wrong!

[North by Northwest]

Very interesting comments at the Belmont Club which are worth quoting here:
wretchard said: Let's consider things on their face. Israel is attacking specific Hezbollah targets and is shutting down the obvious resupply routes into Lebanon by clamping down on the airport and blockading the port.

Hezbollah must be expending ammunition at tremendous rate and without resupply, they will start to hurt. But Israel almost certainly doesn't plan to reoccupy Lebanon. That would simply be too expensive. It can't afford the manpower.

So the likely scenario is that Israel's forces will run a high-intensity fight for about a week and then withdraw, with or without the captured soldiers, with or without any additional prisoners they may lose to Hezbollah. I think this much is fairly safe to predict.

But somehow the Israelis are going to try make every blow felt in Damascus. How? By hitting known Syrian assets in Lebanon certainly. By playing the old game of empowering the Syrian's enemies certainly. But I think they are going to try to bring in the Syrians by some means. This is always how the IDF has killed their enemy. By getting them to overextend. I'm not sure they want to suck in the Syrian Army. But I think they want to entangle Syria in some crippling way. Will humiliating Syria by hitting their clients be enough to draw them in? Will the Iranians stand by while their guys get chewed up?

Recall that the Iranians are running ops in Iraq. This then, must be an unwelcome "second front" for them. They don't have limitless resources. The next 48 hours will be crucial at determining which way this thing is going.

[North by Northwest]

Michael,

There just doesn't seem to be any reasonable people in Palestine - and even if there were, they'd sooner be killed before ever having their voices heard by the people. It's a wretched reality which will go on for decades or be resolved in one fatal cataclysmic event of not so natural origin...

[Michael van der Galien]

North by Northwest,

Great quote. I completely agree. The question is of course whether such a thing will succeed.

Hatred towards Jews / Israel is too deeply ingrained in quite some Arab countries. I am of the opinion that it will never go away. The only thing 'we' can do is to make those countries more moderate in so far that they will not fight against Israel anymore.
They don't need to love it, they only need to stop attacking it.

Indeed, freedom and education - among other things - will be importanted to achieve that. That is what Israel must do now. Take out the ones feeding the hatred and aggression and make sure that more moderate, or maybe we should say more reasonable people will take over the PA.

[North by Northwest]

In these tumultuous days of a fast escalating conflict, it is necessary to be realistic what an immensely daunting task Israel is facing to reach a lasting peace. There are no short cuts and it is in no way certain, that it can ever be achieved:

The only workable recipe for lasting Middle East peace is the enormously difficult one of remaking Palestinian society from the bottom up. Of destroying its poisonous culture of violence, death-worship, and Jew-hatred. Of educating its people for democracy and tolerance. Of replacing its cruel and corrupt rulers with leaders genuinely committed to moderation.

Only when — only if — such a transformation takes place will the Palestinians be ready for statehood. To confer sovereignty on them now would be disastrous, a guarantee of violence for years to come. If there is one thing a regime that can call the execution of a mother and her four daughters "heroic" doesn't need, it is a reward.