Remember, We Won The War (UPDATED)

 

Eventually....

It just took us a lot longer and left millions more dead.

It started the Cold War, which, some 40 years later, we won too.

It paved the way for the Marshall Plan, which critically led to the transformation of an entirely new Europe in the form of the European Union (EU), made up of currently 25 independent states based on the European Economic Communities (EEC), practically without borders, complete with common currency, Central Bank and an European Parliament, which supervises the European Commission (EC). Simply unimaginable at the end of WWII.

It caused the Japanese to realize that US-pioneered capitalism was the way to go following Hiroshima and Nagasaki, giving us today the second largest, entirely peace-loving and democratic economy after our own.

Fast forward....

Only by looking at the bigger picture in this wider historical context am I able to fight the heavy heart with which I must accept that the UN Security Council Resolution 1701 has handed Hezbollah and its state sponsor Iran and Syria a "near-total victory". [you must read the entire piece by Caroline Glick, it's brilliant]

...and an unprecedented defeat for Israel and its ally the United States. [...] in practice it makes it all but impossible for Israel to defend itself against Hizbullah aggression without being exposed to international condemnation on an unprecedented scale.[...] By empowering Annan to evaluate compliance, the resolution all but ensures that Hizbullah will not be forced to disarm and that Israel will be forced to give up the right to defend itself. [...] the resolution rewards Hizbullah's aggression by giving international legitimacy to its demand for territorial aggrandizement via acts of aggression, in contravention of the laws of nations.[...] Moreover, by allowing Lebanon to make territorial claims on Israel despite the fact that in 2000 the UN determined that Israel had withdrawn to the international border, the resolution sets a catastrophic precedent for the future.[...] the Palestinians, Syrians and indeed the Jordanians and Egyptians will feel empowered to employ aggression to gain territorial concessions from the Jewish state even if they previously signed treaties of peace with Israel. The message of the resolution's stand on Shaba Farms is that Israel can never expect for the world to recognize any of its borders as final.[...] the resolution treats as equivalent Hizbullah's illegal aggression against Israel and Israel's legitimate military actions taken in defense of its sovereign territory.[...]

Many sources in Washington told this writer over the weekend that the US decision to seek a cease-fire was the result of Israel's amateurish bungling of the first three weeks of the war. The Bush administration, they argued, was being blamed for the Olmert government's incompetence and so preferred to cut its losses and sue for a cease-fire.

There is no doubt much truth to this assertion. The government's prosecution of this war has been unforgivably inept. At the same time it should be noted that the short-term political gain accrued by the US by forging the cease-fire agreement will come back to haunt the US, Israel and all forces fighting the forces of global jihad in the coming weeks and months.

By handing a victory to Hizbullah, the resolution strengthens the belief of millions of supporters of jihad throughout the world that their side is winning and that they should redouble efforts to achieve their objectives of destroying Israel and running the US out of the Middle East.

Only by contemplating our eventual resilience against state-sponsored evil, be it Communism or Islamofascism, am I able to maintain my sense of optimism and faith. Only armed with that knowledge am I able to digest, what TigerHawk summarizes aptly in his post "What will it take to militarize the West?":

The cumulative events of the last five years and the tortured choices we face in the Israeli-Hezbollah war have caused many on the hawkish right to believe that our failure to confront Islamic fascism in its various dimensions is condemning us to fight a huge war in the future. For these writers, it is the 1930s all over again, and we are making the same mistakes that the leaders of the West made in the fight againt European fascism. See, e.g., Cardinalpark's post earlier in the week, John Batchelor's disturbing essay in the New York Sun, and Michael Ledeen's "Five Minutes to Midnight" post at the Corner. 

Rather than dwelling on the multitude of failures and mistakes made since July 12th, let us instead today rejoice in the knowledge that in time we, and by we, I mean Israel and a free West, too will prevail against the diabolical threat forced upon us by Islamofascists and their sympathizers; let us bow our heads in prayer, asking for the protection of Israel and our Jewish brethren as they, and, by our inextricably linked fate, we, are facing again bleak times before being able to breathe a collective sigh of relief.

Let us join Esther Wachsman in her prayer, "that God will grant His guidance, strength and good counsel to our leaders".

So far I have to conclude that His master plan does not appear to include peace for Israel for some time to come, nor our ability to understand that 'We Are All Jews Now', and by empowering Iran and their Islamofascists we sign our own death warrant. Sigh....

UPDATE: My reader Publius Hamilton having read Ed Morrissey's post, gives me a 'feel good' update

that the Lebanese Cabinet has postponed, indefinitely, a meeting that was to approve the implementation of the cease fire terms, specifically the insertion of the Lebanese Army. Nasrallah must be having second thoughts, since protection of the southern border is Hizb'allahs militia primary reason for existence. They are never going to let the Lebanese Army disarm them. The dance is just beginning.....

Israel refuses to leave southern Lebanon until Lebanese forces and international forces can secure the border area. Hezbollah's leader promised to fight as long as Israel remained in southern Lebanon. It's going to be a long hot summer...

The latest is that the postponement is due to be for one or two days giving time for thrashing out the implementation process. Fine by me, the more discord the better, hopefully Hezbollah's greed for power will rear its ugly head and put a spanner in the works, and as Ed rightly sums up

Either Lebanon enforces the UN resolution, or it reveals itself as a puppet of Hezbollah. Either way, the Israelis win, and Nasrallah knows it.

Let us hope the U.S. and Israel had this in mind all along, after all it is the tactic we deployed with Saddam Hussein, knowing he would refuse to disarm. Calling Nasrallah's bluff may have not been a bad move after all....

Comments

[liquid]

Wow Crusader...that would be something! I think Damascus should be a target put on the table too. Isn't that where most of the fueling and loading of trucks with military supplies takes place in route for hezbollah?

[Crusader.NoRegrets.]

The idea of completely destroying all the Iranian oil facilities must now be really tempting to Israel. This may be the only way to prevent the next round of war - threaten the world with the crippling of Iranian oil if there is another proxy war. And most oil facilities are sitting ducks for Heyl H'avir (did I spell that right?)

It's a nice thought, isn't it? Would the threat of $175-a-barrel oil convince the Europeans to deal with Ahmadinejad?

Hard to imagine Nazi-rallah disarming himself, and the Lebs and Frenchies have no interest in doing it. A long, hot summer.

[liquid]

I am staying positive igout and realizing that things take time and sometimes things are really shaky and seem too long and we get impatient and frustrated--in hard times there is testing of our patience and our faith, but we must remember that some journeys can take up to 40 years.

My heart is with Sharon's family also today.

[igout]

Long view: reasonably optimistic. Short view: Hell to pay.

There already is a strategic weapon aimed right at us: The Oil. Putin gets this. Chavez gets this. Almadine or whatever his name is gets it, unless his head really is up in heaven with the 12th imman.

So we have old-fashioned nation-states who can harm us the old fashioned way. With or without nukes. There's no good crying over spilt milk, but would to God we had begun achieving energy self-sufficiency 30 years ago.

We also have muslim 5th columnists living here in the west. The best way to regard them is as injuns, to be exiled elsewhere.

Lastly, you got the terror groups per se doing harm wherever they can, be they in Lebanon or taking planes to the USA.

It all seems so insurmountable, but we of the West are quite good at killing once we put our minds to it. I'm sure we will. I know we will.

Meanwhile Alexandra and us all, being hang-dog and mopey does no good, we must exhibit more confidence than we may feel at present. It's good for public morale.

[liquid]

I am pretty tired and my eyes have tried to scan over this thread to see if this link has been shared yet, if so, forgive me, and Alexandra you can just delete this, but if not, I think you guys would really enjoy The Pamela Report: Atlas Interviews John Bolton

[Saul Davis]

PS: The idea that Israel would accept the UN resolution with NO provision for return of the kidnapped soldiers is completely beyond my understanding. What is wrong with these people?

[Saul Davis]

Alexandra: Thank you for an excellant article once again; I am by nature a pessimist; Ohlmert's bungling of Lebanon has only added to my natural tendencies; I appreciate the optimism of many commenters here; however, when a Lawyer (Ohlmert) does not listen to generals regarding the manner in which a war must be fought, the likelihood of success is minimal; the war against Hizbullah is the best evidence of this truism; Ohlmert's government (?) has shown incompetence beyond understanding; Israel was given a golden opportunity, and completely fritted it away with the government's timidity; I only hope that some of the commenter's here are correct -- that Hizbullah will be sufficiently stupid not to completely accept the UN resolution and provide Israel with a second chance before the UN takes over the south of Lebanon. Let us hope and pray for Nasrallah's stupidity.

[Kenny Pierce]

Rich,

"Things will get worse before they get better, but they will get better."

That is exactly my take -- for the United States. My major fear is that we in the States will not wake up until Israel is a radioactive wasteland. That we will win in the end, I have very little doubt. That our folly will cause vast amounts of unnecessary suffering, I also have very little doubt.

Note: the above reference to the Kevin Sites parody is that same People's Cube link I had mentioned earlier.

[Kenny Pierce]

Oh, and also don't miss the faux "Kevin Sites" piece in which somebody who is very good indeed at imitating Kevin Sites, gives us a stirring rendition of the good old, "The only thing all this conflict is doing is helping the terrorists Nazis in their recruiting" vaudeville routine carefully reasonable and empirically grounded political analysis.

[rich]

While pessimism is healthy, one should not overlook the following facts:

The media did not stop the war.

Possession is 9/10s of the law and Israel is in possession of South Lebanon.

The previously secret construction of fortifications, the secret buildup of arms and the secret resupply of arms by Syria, Iran, Russia and China have been exposed.

The intentions of Iran and Syria have been made explicit for the Western world to see.

What is to come could not have been stopped in South Lebanon but the continuing conflict there means that Israel will be very vigilant about its norther border as the remainder of this conflict develops.

Things will get worse before they get better, but they will get better.

[Ken Pierce]

And just to lighten the mood, I highly recommend the current issue of The People's Cube, in which, among other delights, one finds a reprint of the New York Times's original coverage of the Warsaw Uprising.

You will note in particular the subheading: "Jewish Resistance Shatters Hopes for a Peaceful Final Solution: How could both sides have blundered so badly?" Also, I personally got a kick out of many of the sidebar notes, e.g., "Historians: Victory disproportionately awarded to the victors," "Hezbollah welcomes UN rearmament ceasefire plan," and, "Al Jazeera: Hezbollah rocket hits Israeli cemetery; thousands dead."

I owe somebody a hat tip but I'm terribly embarrassed because I closed the original window and now can't remember how I got there.

[Ken Pierce]

I believe sharinlite refers to this post, which would appear to show that the Danes at least are beginning to understand how much trouble they're in.

[sharinlite]

Everyone, everywhere must read the post on gatesofvienna.blogspot.com of August 10, 2006.
It is chilling and brilliant. It says everything
I have been saying to my family, friends and anyone
willing to listen for months now. It is scary. We
must stand for our beliefs before they are taken
away from us.

[Brad]

The IDF is going to Damascas.

[Publius Hamilton]

"[T]here have been more cease-fires in the Middle East than anywhere else. If cease-fires actually promoted peace, the Middle East would be the most peaceful region on the face of the earth instead of the most violent." —Thomas Sowell

The Iranians and Syrians may have control over Nasrallah, but is he willing to be a martyr for them? Will his ego allow it? Will his thugs all stay in line? The trip wire to blow the lid off the cease fire is on a hair trigger. All it takes is one or two of his fighters to free lance an attack on Israel and all bets are off.

Olmert knows the next infraction, which is bound to happen soon, will require a devastating IDF response or he can kiss his political fortunes goodbye and pave the way for Netanyahu.

Bush and Olmert have called Hizb'allah and Iran's bluff by accepting the cease fire and they also stopped any shady resolution attempts by Russia and France. All we need now is Olmert to brag about the cease fire terms and make a few inflammatory comments like "We just humiliated the cowardly Nasrallah and the Hizzies" from Olmert to stir up the Hizb'allah faithful, who will then force his hand.

[Kenny Pierce]

Hmm, I had not given sufficient thought to the degree of control the Iranians have over Nasrallah. A very fair point indeed. But not a reassuring one.

I hope I'm still right but the odds aren't as good as I thought they were.

[Crusader.NoRegrets.]

I must agree with antimedia.

Nazi-rallah is many things, but I don't think he is a total dunce. I suspect Iran will order him to bide his time, and rebuild, being satisfied with having won this campaign. Nazi-rallah most likely will be preparing for the next round, say two or three years from now, when he restarts the V2 bombing, in order to get more of Northern Israel "open to discussions".

I even think Nazi-rallah may have the cheek to ambush an Israeli column and kidnap 2 or 3 Israeli soldiers again. "Hey man, it works every time!"

[Ghost Dansing]

Yeah but...Baby I've been here before...I've seen this room and I've walked this floor, You know...I used to live alone before I knew ya...And I've seen your flag on the marble arch...and love is not a victory march...It's a cold and it's a broken Hallelujah...Well your faith was strong but you needed proof...You saw her bathing on the roof...her beauty and the moonlight overthrew ya...And she tied you to her kitchen chair...She broke your throne and she cut your hair...and from your lips she drew the Hallelujah...Maybe there's a God above...But all I've ever learned from love...Was how to shoot somebody who outdrew ya...And it's not a cry that you hear at night...it's not somebody who's seen the light...

It's a cold and it's a broken Hallelujah

I've told the truth, I didn't come to fool you
And even though
It all went wrong
I'll stand before the Lord of Song
With nothing on my tongue but Hallelujah

fragments of Leonard Cohen

[antimedia]

Kenny, I would accept your logic about Nasrallah if the Iranians were not pulling his strings. As it is, I believe he will do what Iran tells him to do, which is accept the ceasefire and pretend things are peaceful while we try to foment more violence in Iraq. Malaki just installed three of his hand-picked people to run Basra. The Shiites in Basra, who align themselves with Iran, are really pissed about it, but I doubt that bothers Malaki one bit.

So the Iranians have some work to do in Iraq and will want Lebanon to be quiet for a little while.

Let's hope the Iraqis kick their ass.

[Kenny Pierce]

I'm with Publius on this one. I said a couple of days ago, after reading the text of the U.N. resolution, "This is a resolution that it's hard to see Nasrallah accepting. Having said that, I think he ought to accept it and count on UNIFIL to be useless. But I don't think he'll accept it." So far Nasrallah is not disappointing me.

I think you always have to remember that politicians who claim to be speaking on behalf of ethnic groups (e.g., Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton, Yasser Arafat, etc.) are almost always actually motivated by individual self-interest. You must ask yourself, "What are the consequences of Action X -- not for the group they claim to be representing, but for their own political relevance?" And you proceed, generally speaking, on the assumption that it is most likely that they will act to extend their own personal relevance and power for as long as possible, at whatever cost to their own people.

Thus Nasrallah is only really good at one thing: stirring up trouble with Israel. He might appear to the intellectualy careless to be good at education and welfare programs as well -- but in point of fact he knows perfectly well, as does any remotely intelligent and informed person (which of course leaves out most of his grossly undereducated and misinformed Shi'ite power base), that the only thing that keeps those programs afloat, is Iranian money -- and that that money comes with very definite strings attached. Should Nasrallah ever begin to act in a way that could lead to true peace with Israel, the Iranian money would stop coming -- and his economic house of cards would collapse with it.

If the Lebanese government takes over law and order and national defense, Nasrallah suddenly is not necessary as a kingpin Defender Of Shi'ites Against The Jew Pigs, nor as a proxy arm of the Iranian regime. Since his only value to his power base is as a Defender and as a welfare provider, this means that he becomes unnecessary in the former role and (without the Iranian funding) openly incompetent in the latter.

Furthermore, Nasrallah's supremacy depends upon a popular support from people who are absolutely terrible at recognizing their own self-interest and thoroughly dominated by propaganda. Nasrallah must at all times be perceived as necessary; and he must act as the dictates of propaganda require, not as the dictates of good strategy require.

Therefore, even though Hezbollah's best option is to pretend to accept the cease-fire and trust to the U.N. to muck things up -- a strategy that, if they were to follow it, would have a 99.99% chance of succeeding spectacularly -- Nasrallah almost certainly will not be able to bring himself to accept that strategy. Nasrallah is not interested in what is best for all Arabs. He is not interested in what is best for Lebanon. He is not interested in what is best for the Lebanese Shi'ites. He is not even interested in what is best for Hezbollah.

He is interested in what is best for Nasrallah. And I don't think he's likely to determine that his political career is likely to be best served by appearing to accept the terms of this resolution.

I find myself thinking of the genuinely terrible movie Love Actually (I watch it now and then but always on DVD and I always skip all scenes except the ones that involve the Colin Firth / Portuguese girl romance, which is the only story line in the whole thing that's worth the time it takes to look at the cover art on the DVD box). In the most absurd casting decision of all, Hugh Grant -- playing, as he always does, himself -- is cast as the Prime Minister. The President of the U.S. comes to visit, and Grant agrees in negotiations to take several unspecified actions. But the President makes the mistake of flirting with the intern...hm, probably not the right term but we'll go with it...with the intern for whom Grant himself has the hots. And as a result of that, Grant reneges on the deal and insults the President without warning in the middle of their joint press conference.

The reaction of the British characters in the movie? Glee and delight that finally England is standing up to mean ol' nasty America. Of course what has actually just happened is that the Prime Minister has wrecked the single most important alliance that England has, not because he considers it advisable, but because he has to prove his...um...male superiority, shall we say, to the President. It is an absolutely insane and unforgivably stupid action, undertaken for the most stereotypically mindless of motives. (My mother-in-law's favorite joke: "Question: Why do women have no brains? Answer: Because they don't have a penis to keep 'em in.") But the British characters are delighted and the Prime Minister's popularity soars.

Now, that is just a bad movie. But what is striking about the insanity that is the Arab world, is that what is in England an unrealistically bad movie, is in the Arab world simple fact. The surest way to adulation and popular acclaim and political power among Israel's Arab neighbors, has for fifty years been to behave with near-suicidal stupidity that is guaranteed (a) to render the lives of your own people far harder and more unpleasant, and (b) to make it far less likely that you'll ever actually achieve your goal of eliminating the state of Israel.

If Nasrallah rejects the cease-fire and talks grandly of how Hezbollah will keep shooting as long as there is a single Israeli soldier left in Lebanon, and that Hezbollah will not lay down its weapons and cease "defending" the people of Lebanon until all "their" land (meaning, chunks of land that have never belonged to Lebanon and to which they have no rational claim) is returned, then he will be adored as a great warrior by the foolish and myopic Shi'ites from whom he derives all his power. If he is seen to back down -- however shrewdly rational a strategy it might be to appear to back down -- then his popularity begins instantly to erode. If he stands his ground and as a result thousands more Shi'ites die, that just strengthens the Shi'ite hatred of Israel and convinces them even more firmly that Hezbollah is necessary.

And that's why I have trouble seeing Nasrallah ever accepting the terms of this cease-fire, and therefore why my mind was greatly eased once I read the text of the resolution.

[Alexandra]

UPDATE: My reader Publius Hamilton having read Ed Morrissey's post, gives me a 'feel good' update

that the Lebanese Cabinet has postponed, indefinitely, a meeting that was to approve the implementation of the cease fire terms, specifically the insertion of the Lebanese Army. Nasrallah must be having second thoughts, since protection of the southern border is Hizb'allahs militia primary reason for existence. They are never going to let the Lebanese Army disarm them. The dance is just beginning.....

The latest is that the postponement is due to be for one or two days giving time for thrashing out the implementation process. Fine by me, the more discord the better, hopefully Hezbollah's greed for power will rear its ugly head and put a spanner in the works, and as Ed rightly sums up

Either Lebanon enforces the UN resolution, or it reveals itself as a puppet of Hezbollah. Either way, the Israelis win, and Nasrallah knows it.

Let us hope the U.S. and Israel had this in mind all along, after all it is the tactic we deployed with Saddam Hussein, knowing he would refuse to disarm. Calling Nasrallah's bluff may have not been a bad move after all....

[jainphx]

Publius, I dare say that your logic is incouraging,but will never happen with Ohlmert at the reigns.Change is a must for your theory to be correct,but I must tell you I hope G-D your right.

[Publius Hamilton]

Please put away the razor blades and hemlock, for now. Stop to consider that We, the US and Israel, are playing a version of "rope a dope" with Nasrallah and his benefactors. For those uninitiated to this boxing term, it describes how Muhammad Ali (ironic, eh?) fooled his opponent into thinking he was tired and worn out and kept dancing away, allowing him to become tired and overly optimistic, setting him up for the kill by Ali. I seriously doubt that Nasrallah or his thugs in Hizb'allah will keep the peace and will give Israel the political cover to say " We told you so" as they go all the way to the Bekaa Valley, all the while telling the world, "We tried, once again". The trick is to ensure Hizb'allah is not resupplied by Syria or Iran during this time.

To bolster this argument, consider the fact that it is being reported over at Captain's Quarters, http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/ganymede.cgi/7793 , that the Lebanese Cabinet has postponed, indefinitely, a meeting that was to approve the implementation of the cease fire terms, specifically the insertion of the Lebanese Army. Nasrallah must be having second thoughts, since protection of the southern border is Hizb'allahs militia primary reason for existence. They are never going to let the Lebanese Army disarm them. The dance is just beginning.....

To quote Margaret Thatcher, "Now is not the time to go wobbly". Give Nasrallah a chance to screw this up and thereby open the door for Israel to go in and drain the swamp.

[John Werntz]

Alexandra:

"Sigh..." Me too. What else is there?  Even at the height of the Cold War, I never experienced the oppressive forebodence that grips me now.  To recall something akin, I have to go back to when I was a sprout in the late 30s.  In those days the League of Nations was merely futile.  Kofi Annan's UN is virulently toxic, an active force for evil.  Why don't we bring it down?  Some budget cuts, the issuance of a few thousand Persona Non Grata orders, and a judicious exercise of eminent domain would do the trick.  Pipe dream.

Off topic, but something you might enjoy reading.  Russ Vaughn, ex-paratrooper of the 101st and the Internet's Robert Service, has an update of Kipling's IF-- in the NRO. Read and enjoy.

[Michael van der Galien]

About this resolution. French Minister of Foreign Affairs has already explained what kind of ferocious strategy the French will use to disarm Hizbullah.
Political tools only. They will not use military force.

Yeah, Olmert was right: great deal: Hizbullah will get just about everything it wished for, Israel will lose completely.

I think that the problem with this is that it will strengthen our enemies Alexandra. Sure we will beat them in the end, but in short run, this will encourage terrorists everywhere. Israel and the United States chose to appease them.

Will we win? Yes, we will, but Olmert's decision to accept the deal (and the US' decision to pressure Olmert in doing so) is a big mistake.

[Michael van der Galien]

Of course 'we' will win. Goodbye Olmert, hello Netanyahu.