Could It Be?

 

The Baker-Hamilton Plan is all the talk of course (Iraq Study Group - or ISG for short), which in a nutshell is a proposal to reverse the strategy of taking the war-on-terror to the murdering thugs' home in favor of embracing them à la, 'keep your friends close, but your enemies closer'. Instead of fighting the Islamofascists, the ISG is opting for talks.

So, what does that mean? To be blunt, talking to the Mullahcracies in Iran communicates to the rest of the world two very important messages, both of which carrying enormous consequences:

One, conceding victory to Iran over domestic control in Iraq; fuelling bloodshed on the streets of Baghdad and getting the MSM to lay the blame on our doorstep has been a spectacular success for the Islamic spin doctors and their sympathizers/appologists all round. Surrender now would not be the consequence of failure or our inability to succeed, but because democracy has proven to be as weak and feckless a system as its adversaries assume.

The jihadi's theory of victory is simple; the West can be bullied into not lifting a finger to defend itself.

Victor David Hanson puts this first message, the all-important admission of defeat, into historical perspective when he writes, "A civilization that has lost confidence in itself cannot confront the Islamists."

What would a beleaguered Socrates, a Galileo, a Descartes, or Locke believe, for example, of the moral paralysis in Europe? Was all their bold and courageous thinking — won at such a great personal cost — to allow their successors a cheap surrender to religious fanaticism and the megaphones of state-sponsored fascism?

Just imagine in our present year, 2006: plan an opera in today's Germany, and then shut it down. Again, this surrender was not done last month by the Nazis, the Communists, or kings, but by the producers themselves in simple fear of Islamic fanatics who objected to purported bad taste. Or write a novel deemed unflattering to the Prophet Mohammed. That is what did Salman Rushdie did, and for his daring, he faced years of solitude, ostracism, and death threats — and in the heart of Europe no less. Or compose a documentary film, as did the often obnoxious Theo Van Gogh, and you may well have your throat cut in "liberal" Holland. Or better yet, sketch a simple cartoon in postmodern Denmark of legendary easy tolerance, and then go into hiding to save yourself from the gruesome fate of a Van Gogh. Or quote an ancient treatise, as did Pope Benedict, and then learn that all of Christendom may come under assault, and even the magnificent stones of the Vatican may offer no refuge — although their costumed Swiss Guard would prove a better bulwark than the European police. Or write a book critical of Islam, and then go into hiding in fear of your life, as did French philosophy teacher Robert Redeker.

And we need not only speak of threats to free speech, but also the tangible rewards from a terrified West to the agents of such repression. Note the recent honorary degree given to former Iranian President, Mohammad Khatami, whose regime has killed and silenced so many, and who himself is under investigation by the Argentine government for his role in sponsoring Hezbollah killers to murder dozens of Jewish innocents in Buenos Aires.

Two, the permanence of the State of Israel is in play; it's negotiable or as Hamas unabashedly demands "the international community correct its 1947 mistake," while in the same breath affirming that this doesn't negate its readiness to first take over the 1967 territories "without preconditions" - as per the "phased solution" model (i.e. Israel's phased destruction). Caroline Glick shouts out, "Jews Wake Up!"

The main incentive Baker advocates offering is Israel.

Baker believes that Iran will agree to temporarily hold its fire in Iraq in exchange for US acceptance of Iran as a nuclear power and an American pledge not to topple the regime. Syria will assist the US in exchange for US pressure on Israel to hand over the Golan Heights to Syria and Judea and Samaria to Hamas.

Obviously, if implemented, the Baker-Hamilton group's recommendations will be disastrous for Israel. Just the fact that they now form the basis for the public debate on the war is a great blow. But it isn't only Israel that is harmed by their actions. The US too, will be imperiled if their views become administration policy.

So, could it be, that our leaders, left or right, majority or minority, fall for this?

As evidence of Iran's readiness, the sources say, Larijani earlier this year publicly accepted an offer made by U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad to hold talks with Iranian officials in Baghdad. But in Iran's view, the U.S. withdrew the offer and that undercut Larijani's standing inside the regime, strengthening the position of more hard-line elements, including Ahmadinejad. "It was a missed opportunity," contends the expert on U.S.-Iranian relations.

And, in light of the debates that continue to swirl both in Tehran and Washington over whether to talk to each other, it may not have been the last one.

Could it be that our politicians are this predictable in the face of an electoral crisis; don't tell me that not every single one of our leaders quietly but collectively and hole heartedly concurs with Robert Kagan and William Kristol's simple but brilliant synapsis of the ISG recomendations - no matter how they dress it up later to square it with their political concsience:

So let's add up the 'realist' proposals: We must retreat from Iraq, and thus abandon all those Iraqis ... who have depended on the United States for safety and the promise of a better future. We must abandon our allies in Lebanon and the very idea of an independent Lebanon in order to win Syria's support for our retreat from Iraq. We must abandon our opposition to Iran's nuclear program in order to convince Iran to help us abandon Iraq. And we must pressure our ally, Israel, to accommodate a violent Hamas in order to gain radical Arab support for our retreat from Iraq.

Could it be, that in the space of just over 5 short years, even a wake-up call of the epic proportions of 9/11 has been distorted to such a degree, that we have to acknowledge today, an even bigger attack is needed for us to accept the need to defend and fight for our freedom; that our Judea-Chrisitan values and principles are exposed as hollow and meaningless and their dependability to be mere relics of a bygone society.

Comments

[Ghost Dansing]

weekenderman...balony. Dubya has made a strategic blunder, then executed it poorly... has put our Nation at risk and made it more difficult to address the very real threats that we've been discussing here at ATB. So much for Republican "greatness" on Defense. They've been incompetent slugs.

"According to Army Gen. John P. Abizaid, the top U.S. commander for the Middle East, the Army and Marine Corps today cannot sustain even a modest increase of 20,000 troops in Iraq. U.S. commanders for Afghanistan have asked for more troops but have not received them, noted the Iraq Study Group report, which called it "critical" for the United States to provide more military support for Afghanistan...

The depletion of returning units is so severe that the Marines refer to this phase as the "post-deployment death spiral." Army officials describe it as a process of breaking apart units and rebuilding them "just in time" to deploy again...

Training time for active-duty Army and Marine combat units is only half what it should be because they are spending about the same amount of time in war zones as at home -- in contrast to the desired ratio of spending twice as much time at home as on deployment. And the training tends to focus on counterinsurgency skills for Iraq and Afghanistan, causing an erosion in conventional land-warfare capabilities, which could be required for North Korea or Iran, officials say...

The U.S. military today could cobble together two or three divisions in an emergency -- compared with as many as six in 2001 -- not enough to carry out major operations such as overthrowing the Iranian government. "That's the kind of extreme scenario that could cripple us," said Michael E. O'Hanlon, a military expert at the Brookings Institution..."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/12/AR2006121201697.html

[weekenderman]

Ghost: Right now the thing that's keeping President Bush from dealing effectively with Iraq is the Democrat cut-and-runners and the liberal peaceniks in the U.S. The ISG (Iraq Surrender Group) only continues to muddy the waters.

[Liquid]

John Clements:"President Bush did a lot of harm when he broke with established U.S. policy and called for a "Palestinian State" on land that God brought Israel back into possesion of in 1967. And sending Condi over there to pressure Israel into unfair concessions. I voted for President Bush twice, I wish I knew beforehand about his "replacement theology" belief. When people in places of decision making authority are influenced by the false doctrine of replacement theology, they can make decisions touching Israel that are in conflict with God's Word. And that could bring America into conflict with the Almighty concerning the "apple of His eye".

John, I totally agree with you on this! God help us get centered and help us to stop becoming a thorn in Israel's side trying to manipulate them into appeasing Islam! Americans should pray hard for correct guidence. May God surround Israel and the USA with a fortress of angels!

WELCOME BACK ALEXANDRA!!!!!

I voted!

[Ghost Dansing]

It's not my fault the Republicans failed so badly RR... I don't know why my post would upset you. The sooner everybody gets to know incompetence when they see it, the better off all of us will be.

If Dubya couldn't deal effectively with Iraq, why would anybody expect him to be able to deal with Iran or North Korea? Lessons learned? School of Hard Knocks? Even blind hogs occasionally get an acorn?

[RunningRoach]

Alexandra,
If you don't allow this post I'll understand.

GD
Your message is getting "real old" real quick…same "Donkey Dust"...new day. I suggest we give a big cheer to the liberal media. OK. All you guys, at the count of three, grab your genitals and yell “Here! Here! Liberal Media”. Nothing like a good liberal media cheer to cheer you up.

Unfortunately, after all is said and done, particularly in light of what is going on today in Iran, along with the recommendations by the girly-men of the ISG, someone is going to take a small thermonuclear device and make it an intimate part of Ahmadinejad’s anatomy. Call it a much needed worldly laxative.

Regards, JCC

[Ghost Dansing]

By the way... as you know the term "Liberal" and "Conservative" are not antonyms... All Americans that support the Constitution are Liberals...

And speaking of examples of failed policy in Iraq check out WAPO:

To Stem Iraqi Violence, U.S. Aims to Create Jobs

By Josh White and Griff Witte
Washington Post Staff Writers
Tuesday, December 12, 2006; Page A01

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/11/AR2006121101318.html

"We need to put the angry young men to work," Chiarelli said in a phone interview from Baghdad. "One of the key hindrances to us establishing stability in Iraq is the failure to get the economy going. A relatively small decrease in unemployment would have a very serious effect on the level of sectarian killing going on."

"The CPA initially hoped private investors would buy or lease the state factories, but that did not happen as security faltered and much of Iraq became inaccessible. As privatization hopes failed, the factories languished; some were in pristine form and others had been looted when the Pentagon task force examined them this fall. The tens of thousands of Iraqis who used to make them run -- the country's second-largest employment group, after the army -- remained out of work."

You remember who the CPA was don't you? The Republican's man in Iraq: Paul Bremer... after the Military took Iraq, this Republican administration sent over a bunch of incompetent political hacks and ideologues instead of experts to put (or keep) Iraq on its feet economically... Instead, they flowed tens of thousands of young men out of the Factories into the insurgency because they were seeking some kind of laissez faire investors bonanza.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/yeariniraq/analysis/assessments.html

[Ghost Dansing]

Well I'll tell you weekendeman, the much criticized Liberal Media has provided a far more accurate presentation of the situation in Iraq than this Republican administration...

Dubya is continuing to play a game... he is surrounding himself with people who are telling him that Iraq is "winnable", without defining what "winnable" is, when in actuality the only thing America could have done militarily in Iraq after occupation... in fact was mandated to do by the Geneva Convention... was establish security and stability.

Of course it could only have had a chance to do that if it had proceeded competently by doing things like sending in enough troops... but the fact is this Republican administration didn't send in enough troops, made whole list of rookie mistakes, and didn't establish security... It failed... and now the situation is too far gone to establish security by sending in more troops.

This is a cut-your-losses scenario... and the longer American forces are tied down in Iraq, the longer it will be before America can credibly confront Iran, North Korea, hisballah, Syria or any of the other problems we've been discussing here at ATB.

Dubya blew it. The Republican Party isn't going to fade away... but it will not be the wing that brought Dubya into office that is their face for 2008... they are going to rediscover the moderates and Liberals in the Party... or they are going to lose.

[weekenderman]

Good luck with those fantasies about the GOP fading away, Ghost. By the way, I'm glad you're still getting all your news from the NYT. Stick with that, and then I'll look forward to reading your thoughts after the Republicans rebound nicely in '08.

As for the ISG (Iraq Surrender Group), it's not worth the paper on which it's printed. Everything in the report is rehashed from ideas already proposed.

As for Ahmadinejad, it sound like there's a good chance he'll self-explode before our first missile hits.

[Ghost Dansing]

I don't think I have to point out, once again, who's policies and strategic blunders put America in this ridiculous position...

I'll give you a hint: Dubya and this incompetent Republican administration.

That is a really great picture, by the way Alexandra...

Here are some lines from Frank Rich in the NYT a few days ago:

"The Iraq Study Group takes a similarly disingenuous tack. Its account of how the country Mr. Bush called a “grave and gathering danger” in September 2002 has devolved into a “grave and deteriorating” catastrophe today is unsparing and accurate. But everyone except the president knew this already, and that patina of realism evaporates once the report moves from diagnosis to prescription."

"Its recommendations are bogus because the few that have any teeth are completely unattainable. Of course, it would be fantastic if additional Iraqi troops would stand up en masse after an infusion of new American military advisers. And if reconciliation among the country’s warring ethnicities could be mandated on a tight schedule. And if the Bush White House could be persuaded to persuade Iran and Syria to “influence events” for America’s benefit. It would also be nice if we could all break the bank in Vegas."

"The group’s coulda-woulda recommendations are either nonstarters, equivocations (it endorses withdrawal of combat troops by 2008 but is averse to timelines) or contradictions of its own findings of fact. To take just one example: Even if we could wave a magic wand and quickly create thousands more military advisers (and Arabic-speaking ones at that), there’s no reason to believe they could build a crack Iraqi army and police force where all those who came before have failed. As the report points out, the loyalties and capabilities of the existing units are suspect as it is."

"By prescribing such placebos, the Iraq Study Group isn’t plotting a way forward but delaying the recognition of our defeat. Its real aim is to enact a charade of progress to pacify the public while Washington waits, no doubt in vain, for Mr. Bush to return to the real world. The tip-off to the cynical game can be found in a single sentence: “We agree with the goal of U.S. policy in Iraq, as stated by the president: ‘an Iraq that can govern itself, sustain itself, and defend itself.’ ” This studious group knows that even that modest goal, a radical devaluation of the administration’s ambition to spread democracy throughout the Middle East, has long been proven a mirage...

"The Iraqi government’s ability to defend anything is so inoperative that the group’s members visited the country but once, with just one (Chuck Robb) daring to leave the Green Zone. The Bush-Maliki rendezvous 10 days ago was at the Four Seasons hotel in Amman."

America should stop choosing incompetent Republican leadership... I'd like to say that, but Dubya has been such an abject failure that by the time 2008 roles around, the Republican Party will probably have transformed itself into the NOT-DUBYA Party.

[gringoman]

Concerning the Mullah Bomb (as gV calls it), realistas everywhere are gradually coming around to the gringo premise: The West will surrender to Shiastan (on the nuclear issue.) This may not be absolutely certain----only 99.9% take-it-to-the-bank (barring unlikely Iranian revolt and regime change.) "Soft" Europe and "hard" U.S. are resigning to the fact: Not even a plucky Israeli strike---doing the ungrateful West's work--- can accomplish much more than $100 oil and more grist for "it's the Jews' fault for making muslims angry."

The new meme for Punditoria will be, 'How We Can (And Must) Live With The Nuked-Up Mullahs.'' The period of gestation for this new sophistication, worthy of Frenchthink by the Freres Jacques, Chirac and Kerry? That will depend on whether Tehran is months away(as some think) or years away (as others think) from the nuclear fulfillment promised by thousands of centrifuges working for Allah (or the old Moon God, depending on your theological suspicions.)

Of course, the West will have to demonstrate some dignity and character in its fateful acquiescence. What would its terms be? I wondered where to go for an answer. Alexandra's Iron Warrior Princess seemed, although willing to strike, not ready to prophesy. Any alternatives? Council of Foreign Relations? Iraq Study Grippe? But how much better would these be than priests in Rome, looking for answers in the entrails of sacrificed animals? So what could I do but take another look into the crystallized gringo ball....And lo....

The West's bedrock condition to the mullahs: "Promise to behave. We'll be friends, kind of, and work together for peace. Now sign here." However, if the fatwa-loving faithful consider this kaffir demand too onerous, there's a fall-back position: "Please try to behave. Hurrah for peace. Now sign here. Please. We said please."

[john clements]

While the Administration has said it is not going to "trade issues", for help with Iraq, -the Baker team sounds like they got talking points from King Abdulla of Jordan before coming out with their report. On the Sunday talk shows two weeks ago, Abdulla pitched the same islamic propaganda:- "everything goes back to Israel, everything is linked to Israel". President Bush did a lot of harm when he broke with established U.S. policy and called for a "Palestinian State" on land that God brought Israel back into possesion of in 1967. And sending Condi over there to pressure Israel into unfair concessions. I voted for President Bush twice, I wish I knew beforehand about his "replacement theology" belief. When people in places of decision making authority are influenced by the false doctrine of replacement theology, they can make decisions touching Israel that are in conflict with God's Word. And that could bring America into conflict with the Almighty concerning the "apple of His eye".

[Gina cobb]

That image you've created of Mahmoud and friends is amazing. I've linked to this here: http://ginacobb.typepad.com/gina_cobb/2006/12/what_is_the_alt.html

[Red Violin]

Thank heavens you're back. The axis of geriatrics (ISG) is more interested in short-term economic stability than long-term national and global security.

The latest news from Iran:

Photos of Student Protesters interrupting Ahmadinejad: The sign reads "Fascist President doesn't belong here in this university (polytechnic university). They also chanted "Death to Dictator" and "freedom is not free". Ahmadinejad also promised HARSH RESPONSE and accused them of being on CIA's payroll.

http://regimechangeiniran.com/2006/12/photo-of-student-protesters-in/

Mahmoud goes up in smoke in Tehran!! Gateway pundit has more:

http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2006/12/iranian-students-smash-cameras-burn.html#comments

[Professor Plum]

An attack that far surpasses 9/11 is not the worst thing that could happen---horrifying as such an event would be.

Nor is it likely that the jihadis will make it a policy to start blowing up malls and churches. I think they know that there are enough of us armed to the teeth who will drag them from their dens and shoot them in the alley.

Worse would be a continual and relentless erosion of our core values and strengths until we are another Spain or France.

A Gulliver who ties himself down.

A caterpillar who welcomes the wasp and justifies being eaten alive, in part by claiming that it deserves no better.

http://www.pbs.org/wnet/nature/alienempire/battlezone.html

A frog slowly boiled by its own hand.

When they start confiscating firearms, and we let them, it will be over.

[Crusader.NoRegrets.]

Alexandra, I have given up on Democracy as a pathetic, spineless and ultimately illusory and transitory system of government. We are witnessing the beginning of the end of Democracy as a system. The rest of the world who watched with great anticipation the collapse of Soviet Communism, have concluded that with all our navel-gazing, our slimy weakness, squabbling and our transsexual parades, there is nothing we have that they want, except our wealth. They will take that soon enough, and all the Leftoids will live to find out whether their Islam-friendly dream-land is really as bad as the Rightwingers said it would be. Look to a gathering stampede of "converts" to Islam (once they figure out all they gotta do is tell the wives what to do (you mean I get more than 1: keewwwll...), not drink beer publically, and be seen to be praying, even if they don't believe).

Which is why I place my hope in the sanity currently to be found among the pragmatisits in China...

[PoliticalCritic]

Interesting take on the ISG report.

[rascalfair]

Could it be? Of course it could....and is. "I want very much to believe..." is whistling past the graveyard, in my opinion.

[igout]

That Brit historian Niall Ferguson thinks we shouldn't dismiss this as pathetic surrendering so fast. He suggests that by sitting down at the same table with Syria and Iran and the other Arab states, we might find opportunities to play on historical animosities and stir up trouble between them. (BTW: In this interpertation, the last thing we'd want would be to have their common enemy Israel present.) I sure hope Ferguson is right. I want very much to believe that the people in Washington aren't as utterly stupid as they sound. Welcome back ALexandra.